Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis Prediction & Betting Tips 29/10/2026

Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis preview

In the upcoming match between Stade Tunisien and ES Zarzis, the 1X2 probabilities show Stade Tunisien at 41%, while ES Zarzis stands at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% chance. Stade Tunisien has a slight edge in expected goals at 1.25 compared to ES Zarzis's 0.98.

However, the match could see different outcomes. Both teams to score has a probability of 46%, indicating a reasonable chance of goals from both sides. Additionally, recent form shows Stade Tunisien with a record of W-W-L-D-W-D, while ES Zarzis has struggled with W-L-L-L-W-L. This inconsistency could affect the final result.

Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Stade Tunisien	Draw	ES Zarzis
Model	41%	31%	28%
Market	—	—	—
Published	41%	31%	28%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Stade Tunisien and ES Zarzis expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.25Stade Tunisien

0.98ES Zarzis

Total expected goals: 2.23
Attack rating (Stade Tunisien / ES Zarzis): 1.24 / 1.29
Defence rating (Stade Tunisien / ES Zarzis): 1.07 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.1% 9.2% 5.2% 1.7% 0.5% 1 12.1% 14.5% 6.5% 2.1% 0.6% 2 8.4% 8.2% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 3 3.5% 3.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 1.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Stade Tunisien goals. Columns: ES Zarzis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 67%

Over 2.5 38%

Over 3.5 19%

Both teams to score: 46%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Stade Tunisien	41%	2.44
	Draw	31%	3.20
	ES Zarzis	28%	3.61
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	38%	2.60
	Under 2.5	62%	1.63
Both teams to score	Yes	46%	2.18
	No	54%	1.85
Double chance	1X (Stade Tunisien or draw)	72%	1.38
	12 (either side)	69%	1.45
	X2 (draw or ES Zarzis)	59%	1.70
Handicap -1	Stade Tunisien win by 2+	19%	5.30
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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