ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis preview
In the fixture between ES Metlaoui and ES Zarzis, the 1X2 probabilities show ES Metlaoui at 26%, a draw at 33%, and ES Zarzis at 41%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which has a 14% chance according to our model. ES Zarzis has shown better recent form with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while ES Metlaoui has lost 5 of their last 6 games.
The expected goals for ES Metlaoui is 0.86, while ES Zarzis has a higher expected goals figure of 1.16. There is a 33% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance for both teams to score. If ES Metlaoui can improve their attacking output, it could challenge the expected outcome.
ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis: model vs market
| Source | ES Metlaoui | Draw | ES Zarzis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 33% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 26% | 33% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
ES Metlaoui and ES Zarzis expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.03
- Attack rating (ES Metlaoui / ES Zarzis)
- 0.69 / 1.29
- Defence rating (ES Metlaoui / ES Zarzis)
- 1.26 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ES Metlaoui goals. Columns: ES Zarzis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Metlaoui | 26% | 3.86 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.05 | |
| ES Zarzis | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.43 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ES Metlaoui or draw) | 59% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| X2 (draw or ES Zarzis) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | ES Zarzis win by 2+ | 18% | 5.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
ES Metlaoui and ES Zarzis recent form
ES Metlaoui
1W 0D 5L
ES Zarzis
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ES Metlaoui at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
ES Zarzis away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: ES Metlaoui at home only, ES Zarzis away only.
ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: ES Metlaoui 0 · draws 1 · ES Zarzis 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | ES Zarzis | 1-0 | ES Metlaoui | Tunisia Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-09 | ES Metlaoui | 0-0 | ES Zarzis | Tunisia Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- US Ben Guerdane v Stade Tunisien — match page 2026-10-23
- AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif 2026-10-23
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Olympique Béja — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- ES Tunis v US Monastirienne — match page 2026-11-01
- ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer v Club Africain — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- ES Metlaoui, previous: AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui prediction
- ES Zarzis, previous: Stade Tunisien – ES Zarzis, 2026-10-29