Updated

Tunisia Ligue 1 · Matchday 7

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Club Africain

Alin prediction The draw

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 0

26% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Progrès Sakiet EddaïerDrawClub Africain
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Club Africain preview

In the match between Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer and Club Africain, the 1X2 probabilities show Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 34%, a draw at 41%, and Club Africain at 25%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-0, which has a 26% probability.

Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer recording 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Club Africain has 3 wins in the same period. The expected goals are low, with Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 0.78 and Club Africain at 0.62. This context suggests that while a low-scoring draw is likely, any unexpected attacking performance could change the outcome.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Club Africain: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceProgrès Sakiet EddaïerDrawClub Africain
Model34%41%25%
Market———
Published34%41%25%
Edge———

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer and Club Africain expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.78Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
0.62Club Africain
Total expected goals
1.40
Attack rating (Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer / Club Africain)
0.93 / 1.25
Defence rating (Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer / Club Africain)
0.69 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Club Africain score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 25.9% 14.1% 4.8% 1.0% 0.2% 1 18.0% 13.1% 3.7% 0.8% 0.1% 2 7.5% 4.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 3 1.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer goals. Columns: Club Africain goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Club Africain goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 74%
Over 1.5 42%
Over 2.5 17%
Over 3.5 5%
Both teams to score
26%
No goals (0–0)
26%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Club Africain

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer34%2.90
Draw41%2.47
Club Africain25%4.00
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.517%6.03
Under 2.583%1.20
Both teams to scoreYes26%3.82
No74%1.35
Double chance1X (Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)59%1.68
X2 (draw or Club Africain)66%1.53
Handicap -1Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer win by 2+11%8.77
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

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Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer and Club Africain recent form

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3W 2D 1L
Club Africain 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
3 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.

Club Africain away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at home only, Club Africain away only.

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot The draw Predicted score 0 – 0 C Bet on this match