ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien preview
In the upcoming match between ES Sahel and CS Sfaxien, the 1X2 probabilities show CS Sfaxien at 47%, while ES Sahel is at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% chance. CS Sfaxien has won both of their last two encounters against ES Sahel, which could influence the game's outcome.
ES Sahel has an expected goals figure of 0.88, compared to CS Sfaxien's 1.38. With a 39% chance of Over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, there is potential for a low-scoring affair. However, if ES Sahel improves their recent form, which includes 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 matches, the dynamics could shift unexpectedly.
ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien: model vs market
| Source | ES Sahel | Draw | CS Sfaxien |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 30% | 47% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 23% | 30% | 47% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.88.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
ES Sahel and CS Sfaxien expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.27
- Attack rating (ES Sahel / CS Sfaxien)
- 1.09 / 1.38
- Defence rating (ES Sahel / CS Sfaxien)
- 1.40 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ES Sahel goals. Columns: CS Sfaxien goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Sahel | 23% | 4.39 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.33 | |
| CS Sfaxien | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.21 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ES Sahel or draw) | 53% | 1.89 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or CS Sfaxien) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | CS Sfaxien win by 2+ | 23% | 4.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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ES Sahel and CS Sfaxien recent form
ES Sahel
2W 1D 3L
CS Sfaxien
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ES Sahel at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
CS Sfaxien away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
League matches this season before kick-off: ES Sahel at home only, CS Sfaxien away only.
ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: ES Sahel 0 · draws 0 · CS Sfaxien 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | CS Sfaxien | 3-1 | ES Sahel | Tunisia Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-23 | ES Sahel | 0-1 | CS Sfaxien | Tunisia Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- US Ben Guerdane v Stade Tunisien — match page 2026-10-23
- AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif 2026-10-23
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Olympique Béja — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- ES Tunis v US Monastirienne — match page 2026-11-01
- ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis 2026-11-01
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer v Club Africain — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- ES Sahel, previous: Olympique Béja v ES Sahel analysis
- CS Sfaxien, previous: CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis: odds and pick