ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne preview
In the Tunisia Ligue 1 fixture between ES Tunis and US Monastirienne, the 1X2 probabilities show ES Tunis at 39%, US Monastirienne at 28%, and a draw at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs with a 14% probability.
ES Tunis has an expected goals figure of 1.10, while US Monastirienne sits at 0.90. The model suggests a 32% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance for both teams to score. Recent form shows ES Tunis with 3 wins and 2 losses, while US Monastirienne is unbeaten in their last 6 matches. These figures indicate that while ES Tunis has a slight edge, their recent performances could lead to unexpected results.
ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne: model vs market
| Source | ES Tunis | Draw | US Monastirienne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 33% | 28% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 33% | 28% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
ES Tunis and US Monastirienne expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.00
- Attack rating (ES Tunis / US Monastirienne)
- 1.25 / 1.16
- Defence rating (ES Tunis / US Monastirienne)
- 1.08 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ES Tunis goals. Columns: US Monastirienne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Tunis | 39% | 2.58 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.00 | |
| US Monastirienne | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.45 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ES Tunis or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| X2 (draw or US Monastirienne) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | ES Tunis win by 2+ | 16% | 6.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
ES Tunis and US Monastirienne recent form
ES Tunis
4W 0D 2L
US Monastirienne
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ES Tunis at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
US Monastirienne away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: ES Tunis at home only, US Monastirienne away only.
ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: ES Tunis 0 · draws 1 · US Monastirienne 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | US Monastirienne | 2-1 | ES Tunis | Tunisia Ligue 1 |
| 2025-08-15 | ES Tunis | 1-1 | US Monastirienne | Tunisia Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- US Ben Guerdane v Stade Tunisien — match page 2026-10-23
- AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif 2026-10-23
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Olympique Béja — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis 2026-11-01
- ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer v Club Africain — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- ES Tunis, previous: CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis: odds and pick
- US Monastirienne, previous: US Monastirienne v Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer analysis