Pyramids FC vs EL Merriekh Bentiu Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Pyramids FC vs EL Merriekh Bentiu preview

Pyramids FC face EL Merriekh Bentiu with a strong 75% probability of winning according to our model, while the expected goals suggest a 2.20 for Pyramids FC compared to just 0.55 for EL Merriekh Bentiu. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which reflects Pyramids FC's recent form of six consecutive wins.

However, the match could deviate from this outcome. EL Merriekh Bentiu has shown some resilience with two wins in their last four matches, and while the chance of both teams scoring is only 38%, any unexpected performance could change the dynamics. Additionally, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

Pyramids FC vs EL Merriekh Bentiu: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Pyramids FC	Draw	EL Merriekh Bentiu
Model	79%	16%	5%
Market	—	—	—
Published	79%	16%	5%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 0.44.
Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Pyramids FC and EL Merriekh Bentiu expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.33Pyramids FC

0.44EL Merriekh Bentiu

Total expected goals: 2.78
Attack rating (Pyramids FC / EL Merriekh Bentiu): 1.91 / 0.93
Defence rating (Pyramids FC / EL Merriekh Bentiu): 0.65 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Pyramids FC vs EL Merriekh Bentiu score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 1 13.9% 7.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2 17.0% 7.5% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 3 13.2% 5.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 13.3% 5.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Pyramids FC goals. Columns: EL Merriekh Bentiu goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Pyramids FC vs EL Merriekh Bentiu goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 52%

Over 3.5 30%

Both teams to score: 33%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Pyramids FC vs EL Merriekh Bentiu

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Pyramids FC	79%	1.26
	Draw	16%	6.32
	EL Merriekh Bentiu	5%	20.87
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52%	1.91
	Under 2.5	48%	2.10
Both teams to score	Yes	33%	3.03
	No	67%	1.49
Double chance	1X (Pyramids FC or draw)	95%	1.05
	12 (either side)	84%	1.19
	X2 (draw or EL Merriekh Bentiu)	21%	4.85
Handicap -1	Pyramids FC win by 2+	57%	1.77
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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