Simba vs 15 de Agosto Prediction & Betting Tips 25/10/2026

Simba vs 15 de Agosto preview

Simba faces 15 de Agosto with a 74% probability of winning, while the visitors have just a 7% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Simba's expected goals of 2.15 compared to 15 de Agosto's 0.54.

However, the match could deviate from this prediction. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Both teams to score stands at 38%, suggesting a lower likelihood of goals from 15 de Agosto. Additionally, while Over 2.5 goals is at 50%, it highlights the potential for fewer goals if 15 de Agosto fails to find the net.

Simba vs 15 de Agosto: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Simba	Draw	15 de Agosto
Model	79%	15%	6%
Market	—	—	—
Published	79%	15%	6%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.58 vs 0.61.
Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Simba and 15 de Agosto expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.58Simba

0.6115 de Agosto

Total expected goals: 3.20
Attack rating (Simba / 15 de Agosto): 2.25 / 1.39
Defence rating (Simba / 15 de Agosto): 0.60 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Simba vs 15 de Agosto score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.7% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 1 9.9% 7.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2 13.7% 8.4% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 3 11.8% 7.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 14.1% 8.6% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Simba goals. Columns: 15 de Agosto goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Simba vs 15 de Agosto goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 62%

Over 3.5 40%

Both teams to score: 43%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Simba vs 15 de Agosto

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Simba	79%	1.26
	Draw	15%	6.70
	15 de Agosto	6%	16.73
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	62%	1.62
	Under 2.5	38%	2.63
Both teams to score	Yes	43%	2.33
	No	57%	1.75
Double chance	1X (Simba or draw)	94%	1.06
	12 (either side)	85%	1.18
	X2 (draw or 15 de Agosto)	21%	4.78
Handicap -1	Simba win by 2+	58%	1.72
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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