Fountain Gate vs Simba preview
Fountain Gate faces Simba with 6% chances of winning for the home side, while Simba has an 80% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which aligns with Simba's expected goals of 2.64 compared to Fountain Gate's 0.60.
Simba's recent form shows 6 consecutive wins, while Fountain Gate has not won in their last 6 matches, recording 3 draws and 3 losses. With 63% likelihood for Over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, the match could deviate from expectations if Fountain Gate finds a way to improve their attacking output.
Fountain Gate vs Simba: model vs market
| Source | Fountain Gate | Draw | Simba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6% | 14% | 80% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 6% | 14% | 80% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 0.60.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Fountain Gate and Simba expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Fountain Gate / Simba)
- 0.75 / 2.33
- Defence rating (Fountain Gate / Simba)
- 1.25 / 0.60
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fountain Gate vs Simba score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fountain Gate goals. Columns: Simba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fountain Gate vs Simba goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fountain Gate vs Simba
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fountain Gate | 6% | 17.86 |
| Draw | 14% | 6.99 | |
| Simba | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.34 |
| No | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fountain Gate or draw) | 20% | 5.02 |
| 12 (either side) | 86% | 1.17 | |
| X2 (draw or Simba) | 94% | 1.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | Simba win by 2+ | 60% | 1.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fountain Gate and Simba recent form
Fountain Gate
0W 2D 4L
Simba
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fountain Gate at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Simba away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 8 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fountain Gate at home only, Simba away only.
Fountain Gate vs Simba head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Fountain Gate 0 · draws 0 · Simba 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | Fountain Gate | 0-3 | Simba | Tanzania Premier League |
| 2025-09-25 | Simba | 3-0 | Fountain Gate | Tanzania Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Young Africans vs Mashujaa — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Dodoma Jiji vs JKT Tanzania 2026-10-27
- Azam vs Mbeya City — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar 2026-10-28
- Pamba Jiji v Singida Black Stars — match page 2026-10-29
- Tabora United v Geita Gold — match page 2026-10-29
- Namungo vs Polisi Tanzania — team news & stats 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Fountain Gate, previous: Geita Gold – Fountain Gate, 2026-10-26
- Simba, previous: Simba vs 15 de Agosto: odds and pick