Simba vs Namungo preview
In the Tanzania Premier League fixture between Simba and Namungo, the 1X2 probabilities show Simba at 90% and Namungo at just 2%. Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 3-0, which occurs 13% of the time. Simba has an impressive expected goals figure of 3.36, while Namungo sits at only 0.49.
Simba's recent form is strong, with 6 consecutive wins, while Namungo has struggled, winning only 2 of their last 6 matches. The model also indicates a 74% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance for both teams to score. However, if Namungo can improve their scoring, they might challenge the expected outcomes.
Simba vs Namungo: model vs market
| Source | Simba | Draw | Namungo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 90% | 8% | 2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 90% | 8% | 2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.36 vs 0.49.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Simba and Namungo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.86
- Attack rating (Simba / Namungo)
- 2.36 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Simba / Namungo)
- 0.57 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Simba vs Namungo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Simba goals. Columns: Namungo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Simba vs Namungo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Simba vs Namungo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Simba | 90% | 1.12 |
| Draw | 8% | 12.40 | |
| Namungo | 2% | 43.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.64 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Simba or draw) | 98% | 1.02 |
| 12 (either side) | 92% | 1.09 | |
| X2 (draw or Namungo) | 10% | 9.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Simba win by 2+ | 75% | 1.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Simba and Namungo recent form
Simba
6W 0D 0L
Namungo
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Simba at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 8 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
Namungo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Simba at home only, Namungo away only.
Simba vs Namungo head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Simba 2 · draws 0 · Namungo 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Namungo | 1-3 | Simba | Tanzania Premier League |
| 2025-10-01 | Simba | 3-0 | Namungo | Tanzania Premier League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- JKT Tanzania v Azam — match page 2026-10-31
- Coastal Union vs Dodoma Jiji — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold 2026-11-01
- Young Africans v Kagera Sugar — match page 2026-11-01
- Tabora United vs Fountain Gate — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Mbeya City vs Singida Black Stars 2026-11-02
- Mashujaa vs Pamba Jiji 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Simba, previous: Fountain Gate – Simba, 2026-10-28
- Namungo, previous: Namungo – Polisi Tanzania, 2026-10-29