Mashujaa vs Pamba Jiji preview
In the upcoming match between Mashujaa and Pamba Jiji, the 1X2 probabilities show Mashujaa at 45%, while Pamba Jiji stands at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model also indicates a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 60%.
However, recent form could influence the outcome. Mashujaa has a mixed record with L-W-W-L-W-L, while Pamba Jiji's recent performance includes D-D-W-L-L-L. The expected goals suggest Mashujaa at 1.69 and Pamba Jiji at 1.31, indicating a potential edge for Mashujaa, but the confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty.
Mashujaa vs Pamba Jiji: model vs market
| Source | Mashujaa | Draw | Pamba Jiji |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.31.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Mashujaa and Pamba Jiji expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.99
- Attack rating (Mashujaa / Pamba Jiji)
- 0.94 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Mashujaa / Pamba Jiji)
- 1.34 / 1.34
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mashujaa vs Pamba Jiji score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mashujaa goals. Columns: Pamba Jiji goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mashujaa vs Pamba Jiji goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mashujaa vs Pamba Jiji
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mashujaa | 45% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Pamba Jiji | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.65 |
| No | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mashujaa or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Pamba Jiji) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mashujaa win by 2+ | 24% | 4.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mashujaa and Pamba Jiji recent form
Mashujaa
3W 0D 3L
Pamba Jiji
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mashujaa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pamba Jiji away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mashujaa at home only, Pamba Jiji away only.
Mashujaa vs Pamba Jiji head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Mashujaa 0 · draws 1 · Pamba Jiji 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Mashujaa | 0-0 | Pamba Jiji | Tanzania Premier League |
| 2025-10-17 | Pamba Jiji | 2-1 | Mashujaa | Tanzania Premier League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- JKT Tanzania v Azam — match page 2026-10-31
- Coastal Union vs Dodoma Jiji — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold 2026-11-01
- Young Africans v Kagera Sugar — match page 2026-11-01
- Tabora United vs Fountain Gate — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Mbeya City vs Singida Black Stars 2026-11-02
- Simba v Namungo — match page 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Mashujaa, previous: Young Africans vs Mashujaa: odds and pick
- Pamba Jiji, previous: Pamba Jiji v Singida Black Stars analysis