Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold preview
Polisi Tanzania faces Geita Gold with a 75% chance of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which has an 11% probability. Polisi Tanzania has an expected goals figure of 2.59, while Geita Gold sits at 0.81.
Polisi Tanzania's recent form shows two draws and four games without a win, while Geita Gold has lost four matches in a row. This inconsistency could affect the outcome. While there is a 66% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 52% probability for both teams to score, the recent struggles of Geita Gold might lead to a lower-scoring match than expected.
Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold: model vs market
| Source | Polisi Tanzania | Draw | Geita Gold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 0.81.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Polisi Tanzania and Geita Gold expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.39
- Attack rating (Polisi Tanzania / Geita Gold)
- 1.26 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Polisi Tanzania / Geita Gold)
- 1.00 / 1.53
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Polisi Tanzania goals. Columns: Geita Gold goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polisi Tanzania | 75% | 1.34 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.09 | |
| Geita Gold | 9% | 11.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Polisi Tanzania or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Geita Gold) | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Polisi Tanzania win by 2+ | 54% | 1.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Polisi Tanzania and Geita Gold recent form
Polisi Tanzania
1W 2D 3L
Geita Gold
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Polisi Tanzania at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Geita Gold away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Polisi Tanzania at home only, Geita Gold away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- JKT Tanzania v Azam — match page 2026-10-31
- Coastal Union vs Dodoma Jiji — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Young Africans v Kagera Sugar — match page 2026-11-01
- Tabora United vs Fountain Gate — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Mbeya City vs Singida Black Stars 2026-11-02
- Mashujaa vs Pamba Jiji 2026-11-02
- Simba v Namungo — match page 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Polisi Tanzania, previous: Namungo – Polisi Tanzania, 2026-10-29
- Geita Gold, previous: Tabora United vs Geita Gold prediction