Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar preview
In the match between Young Africans and Kagera Sugar, the 1X2 probabilities show Young Africans at 88%, while Kagera Sugar sits at just 3%. The most likely scoreline is 3-0, with a 13% chance, indicating a strong expectation for Young Africans to dominate. With an expected goals figure of 3.15 for Young Africans compared to only 0.51 for Kagera Sugar, the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is 71%.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty. Kagera Sugar's recent form includes 3 losses in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance. If they manage to improve their attack, the prediction for both teams to score at 38% could come into play, but that remains less likely given the current statistics.
Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar: model vs market
| Source | Young Africans | Draw | Kagera Sugar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.15 vs 0.51.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Young Africans and Kagera Sugar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.66
- Attack rating (Young Africans / Kagera Sugar)
- 1.76 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Young Africans / Kagera Sugar)
- 0.60 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Young Africans goals. Columns: Kagera Sugar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Young Africans | 88% | 1.14 |
| Draw | 9% | 10.54 | |
| Kagera Sugar | 3% | 34.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.60 |
| No | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Young Africans or draw) | 97% | 1.03 |
| 12 (either side) | 91% | 1.10 | |
| X2 (draw or Kagera Sugar) | 12% | 8.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | Young Africans win by 2+ | 71% | 1.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Young Africans and Kagera Sugar recent form
Young Africans
4W 1D 1L
Kagera Sugar
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Young Africans at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Kagera Sugar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Young Africans at home only, Kagera Sugar away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- JKT Tanzania v Azam — match page 2026-10-31
- Coastal Union vs Dodoma Jiji — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Young Africans, previous: Young Africans vs Mashujaa: odds and pick
- Kagera Sugar, previous: Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar: odds and pick