Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar preview
Coastal Union faces Kagera Sugar with a 53% chance to win, while Kagera Sugar has a 21% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with Coastal Union's expected goals of 1.74 compared to Kagera Sugar's 1.02.
However, both teams to score stands at 54%, indicating a possibility of Kagera Sugar finding the net. Coastal Union's recent form shows a mix of results, while Kagera Sugar has struggled with 4 matches without a win. This could impact the outcome, making it essential to consider their current performance levels.
Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar: model vs market
| Source | Coastal Union | Draw | Kagera Sugar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Coastal Union and Kagera Sugar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.62
- Attack rating (Coastal Union / Kagera Sugar)
- 0.93 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Coastal Union / Kagera Sugar)
- 1.12 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Coastal Union goals. Columns: Kagera Sugar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coastal Union | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Kagera Sugar | 20% | 4.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.96 |
| No | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Coastal Union or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Kagera Sugar) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Coastal Union win by 2+ | 30% | 3.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Coastal Union and Kagera Sugar recent form
Coastal Union
3W 0D 3L
Kagera Sugar
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Coastal Union at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Kagera Sugar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Coastal Union at home only, Kagera Sugar away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Dodoma Jiji vs JKT Tanzania 2026-10-27
- Fountain Gate v Simba — match page 2026-10-28
- Azam vs Mbeya City — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Pamba Jiji v Singida Black Stars — match page 2026-10-29
- Tabora United v Geita Gold — match page 2026-10-29
- Namungo vs Polisi Tanzania — team news & stats 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Coastal Union, previous: Namungo vs Coastal Union prediction
- Coastal Union, next: Coastal Union vs Dodoma Jiji prediction
- Kagera Sugar, previous: JKT Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar: odds and pick