Tabora United vs Geita Gold preview
In the upcoming match between Tabora United and Geita Gold, the 1X2 probabilities show Tabora United at 57%, a draw at 27%, and Geita Gold at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which our model predicts at 15%. Tabora United has an expected goals figure of 1.58, while Geita Gold sits at 0.73.
While the model suggests a low-scoring game, the chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 41%, and both teams to score is at 42%. This indicates that if Geita Gold improves their attack, they could challenge Tabora United's defense, potentially altering the predicted outcome. The recent form shows Tabora United with mixed results and Geita Gold struggling, which could impact their performance on match day.
Tabora United vs Geita Gold: model vs market
| Source | Tabora United | Draw | Geita Gold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 29% | 16% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 29% | 16% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.66.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Tabora United and Geita Gold expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.10
- Attack rating (Tabora United / Geita Gold)
- 0.70 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Tabora United / Geita Gold)
- 0.82 / 1.53
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tabora United vs Geita Gold score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tabora United goals. Columns: Geita Gold goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tabora United vs Geita Gold goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tabora United vs Geita Gold
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tabora United | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Geita Gold | 16% | 6.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.62 |
| No | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tabora United or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Geita Gold) | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tabora United win by 2+ | 28% | 3.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tabora United and Geita Gold recent form
Tabora United
1W 3D 2L
Geita Gold
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tabora United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Geita Gold away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tabora United at home only, Geita Gold away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Young Africans vs Mashujaa — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Dodoma Jiji vs JKT Tanzania 2026-10-27
- Fountain Gate v Simba — match page 2026-10-28
- Azam vs Mbeya City — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar 2026-10-28
- Pamba Jiji v Singida Black Stars — match page 2026-10-29
- Namungo vs Polisi Tanzania — team news & stats 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Tabora United, previous: Singida Black Stars v Tabora United analysis
- Geita Gold, previous: Geita Gold – Fountain Gate, 2026-10-26