Namungo vs Polisi Tanzania preview
In the Tanzania Premier League fixture between Namungo and Polisi Tanzania, the 1X2 probabilities show Polisi Tanzania at 37%, slightly ahead of Namungo at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.17 for Namungo and 1.27 for Polisi Tanzania.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. With a 51% chance for both teams to score and a 44% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals, there is potential for more action than anticipated. Namungo's recent form shows a mix of results, which could impact their performance against a Polisi side that has also been inconsistent.
Namungo vs Polisi Tanzania: model vs market
| Source | Namungo | Draw | Polisi Tanzania |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Namungo and Polisi Tanzania expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.49
- Attack rating (Namungo / Polisi Tanzania)
- 0.96 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Namungo / Polisi Tanzania)
- 1.06 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Namungo vs Polisi Tanzania score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Namungo goals. Columns: Polisi Tanzania goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Namungo vs Polisi Tanzania goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Namungo vs Polisi Tanzania
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Namungo | 37% | 2.71 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Polisi Tanzania | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Namungo or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Polisi Tanzania) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Namungo win by 2+ | 17% | 5.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Namungo and Polisi Tanzania recent form
Namungo
2W 0D 4L
Polisi Tanzania
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Namungo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Polisi Tanzania away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Namungo at home only, Polisi Tanzania away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Young Africans vs Mashujaa — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Dodoma Jiji vs JKT Tanzania 2026-10-27
- Fountain Gate v Simba — match page 2026-10-28
- Azam vs Mbeya City — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar 2026-10-28
- Pamba Jiji v Singida Black Stars — match page 2026-10-29
- Tabora United v Geita Gold — match page 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Namungo, previous: Namungo vs Coastal Union prediction
- Polisi Tanzania, previous: Polisi Tanzania v Pamba Jiji analysis