Azam vs Mbeya City preview
In the Tanzania Premier League fixture between Azam and Mbeya City, the model gives Azam a 60% chance to win, with a predicted scoreline of 1-0 at 17%. Azam's expected goals stand at 1.59, while Mbeya City’s is only 0.60. This suggests a strong likelihood of a low-scoring match.
However, the model indicates a 38% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 37% probability for both teams to score. If Mbeya City improves their recent form, having won 2 of their last 5 matches, they could challenge Azam's dominance, which includes 1 win and 1 draw in their last 2 head-to-head encounters.
Azam vs Mbeya City: model vs market
| Source | Azam | Draw | Mbeya City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 28% | 13% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 59% | 28% | 13% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.56.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Azam and Mbeya City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.07
- Attack rating (Azam / Mbeya City)
- 1.22 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Azam / Mbeya City)
- 0.72 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Azam vs Mbeya City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Azam goals. Columns: Mbeya City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Azam vs Mbeya City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Azam vs Mbeya City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Azam | 59% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Mbeya City | 13% | 7.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.89 |
| No | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Azam or draw) | 87% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Mbeya City) | 41% | 2.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Azam win by 2+ | 32% | 3.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Azam and Mbeya City recent form
Azam
4W 1D 1L
Mbeya City
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Azam at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mbeya City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Azam at home only, Mbeya City away only.
Azam vs Mbeya City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Azam 1 · draws 1 · Mbeya City 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Mbeya City | 0-0 | Azam | Tanzania Premier League |
| 2025-09-24 | Azam | 2-0 | Mbeya City | Tanzania Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Young Africans vs Mashujaa — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Dodoma Jiji vs JKT Tanzania 2026-10-27
- Fountain Gate v Simba — match page 2026-10-28
- Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar 2026-10-28
- Pamba Jiji v Singida Black Stars — match page 2026-10-29
- Tabora United v Geita Gold — match page 2026-10-29
- Namungo vs Polisi Tanzania — team news & stats 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Azam, previous: Azam vs Masr prediction
- Azam, next: JKT Tanzania vs Azam: odds and pick
- Mbeya City, previous: Simba vs Mbeya City: odds and pick