AC Douane vs CR Belouizdad Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

AC Douane vs CR Belouizdad preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup match between AC Douane and CR Belouizdad, the 1X2 probabilities show AC Douane at 35%, a draw at 32%, and CR Belouizdad at 33%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 12% chance of occurring.

The expected goals are close, with AC Douane at 1.08 and CR Belouizdad at 1.04. While there is a 36% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance for both teams to score, the close expected goals suggest a low-scoring game could also happen. The recent form shows AC Douane with a win and a draw, while CR Belouizdad has three wins and three draws.

AC Douane vs CR Belouizdad: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	AC Douane	Draw	CR Belouizdad
Model	35%	32%	33%
Market	—	—	—
Published	35%	32%	33%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

AC Douane and CR Belouizdad expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.08AC Douane

1.04CR Belouizdad

Total expected goals: 2.12
Attack rating (AC Douane / CR Belouizdad): 1.07 / 1.20
Defence rating (AC Douane / CR Belouizdad): 0.95 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AC Douane vs CR Belouizdad score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.3% 11.1% 6.5% 2.3% 0.7% 1 11.6% 14.8% 7.0% 2.5% 0.8% 2 7.0% 7.3% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4% 3 2.5% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: AC Douane goals. Columns: CR Belouizdad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AC Douane vs CR Belouizdad goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%

Over 1.5 64%

Over 2.5 36%

Over 3.5 17%

Both teams to score: 44%
No goals (0–0): 13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AC Douane vs CR Belouizdad

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	AC Douane	35%	2.88
	Draw	32%	3.08
	CR Belouizdad	33%	3.04
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	36%	2.80
	Under 2.5	64%	1.55
Both teams to score	Yes	44%	2.27
	No	56%	1.79
Double chance	1X (AC Douane or draw)	67%	1.49
	12 (either side)	68%	1.48
	X2 (draw or CR Belouizdad)	65%	1.53
Handicap -1	AC Douane win by 2+	14%	6.98
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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