CR Belouizdad vs AC Douane Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

CR Belouizdad vs AC Douane preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup fixture between CR Belouizdad and AC Douane, the 1X2 probabilities show CR Belouizdad at 57% to win, while AC Douane sits at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance according to our model.

CR Belouizdad has a stronger expected goals figure of 1.66 compared to AC Douane's 0.81. However, the chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 45%, and both teams to score is at 46%. This indicates that while CR Belouizdad is favoured, a low-scoring match could occur if AC Douane's defence holds up better than expected.

CR Belouizdad vs AC Douane: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	CR Belouizdad	Draw	AC Douane
Model	57%	27%	17%
Market	—	—	—
Published	57%	27%	17%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.81.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

CR Belouizdad and AC Douane expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.66CR Belouizdad

0.81AC Douane

Total expected goals: 2.47
Attack rating (CR Belouizdad / AC Douane): 1.24 / 1.07
Defence rating (CR Belouizdad / AC Douane): 0.82 / 0.95

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

CR Belouizdad vs AC Douane score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.6% 5.7% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 1 12.9% 12.5% 4.6% 1.2% 0.3% 2 11.7% 9.4% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 3 6.5% 5.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 3.9% 3.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: CR Belouizdad goals. Columns: AC Douane goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

CR Belouizdad vs AC Douane goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 72%

Over 2.5 45%

Over 3.5 24%

Both teams to score: 46%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for CR Belouizdad vs AC Douane

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	CR Belouizdad	57%	1.77
	Draw	27%	3.77
	AC Douane	17%	5.91
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	45%	2.23
	Under 2.5	55%	1.82
Both teams to score	Yes	46%	2.17
	No	54%	1.85
Double chance	1X (CR Belouizdad or draw)	83%	1.20
	12 (either side)	73%	1.36
	X2 (draw or AC Douane)	43%	2.30
Handicap -1	CR Belouizdad win by 2+	32%	3.14
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer