CS Sfaxien vs AFAD Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

CS Sfaxien vs AFAD preview

CS Sfaxien faces AFAD with a 68% chance of winning according to our model, while AFAD has just a 10% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which occurs with a 14% probability. CS Sfaxien's expected goals stand at 1.99, significantly higher than AFAD's 0.66.

However, the predictions could be challenged if AFAD improves their recent form, which includes two draws and two wins in their last six matches. Additionally, while there's a 49% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance for both teams to score, these outcomes depend on AFAD's ability to find the net against a stronger CS Sfaxien defense.

CS Sfaxien vs AFAD: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	CS Sfaxien	Draw	AFAD
Model	68%	22%	10%
Market	—	—	—
Published	68%	22%	10%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 0.66.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

CS Sfaxien and AFAD expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.99CS Sfaxien

0.66AFAD

Total expected goals: 2.65
Attack rating (CS Sfaxien / AFAD): 1.13 / 1.20
Defence rating (CS Sfaxien / AFAD): 0.60 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

CS Sfaxien vs AFAD score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.0% 3.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1 13.1% 10.2% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 2 14.0% 9.2% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 3 9.3% 6.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 7.3% 4.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: CS Sfaxien goals. Columns: AFAD goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

CS Sfaxien vs AFAD goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 75%

Over 2.5 49%

Over 3.5 27%

Both teams to score: 43%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for CS Sfaxien vs AFAD

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	CS Sfaxien	68%	1.48
	Draw	22%	4.60
	AFAD	10%	9.56
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	49%	2.02
	Under 2.5	51%	1.98
Both teams to score	Yes	43%	2.34
	No	57%	1.74
Double chance	1X (CS Sfaxien or draw)	90%	1.12
	12 (either side)	78%	1.28
	X2 (draw or AFAD)	32%	3.10
Handicap -1	CS Sfaxien win by 2+	43%	2.32
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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