Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC preview
Cavalry FC has a 65% chance to win against Vancouver FC, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. The model suggests a high likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams to score at 66%. Cavalry FC's expected goals stand at 2.55, while Vancouver FC's is 1.25, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Cavalry FC has a mixed record of W-D-L-L-W-D, while Vancouver FC has drawn four of their last five matches, with one win. The head-to-head record shows Cavalry FC with 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 win for Vancouver FC in their last 7 encounters. This could suggest a tighter match than the numbers indicate.
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC: model vs market
| Source | Cavalry FC | Draw | Vancouver FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 18% |
| Published | 61% | 22% | 18% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cavalry FC, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cavalry FC | 1.55 | 1.55 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.00 |
| Vancouver FC | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.80
- Attack rating (Cavalry FC / Vancouver FC)
- 1.42 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Cavalry FC / Vancouver FC)
- 0.93 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cavalry FC goals. Columns: Vancouver FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cavalry FC | 61% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.64 | |
| Vancouver FC | 18% | 5.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.50 |
| No | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cavalry FC or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Vancouver FC) | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cavalry FC win by 2+ | 44% | 2.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC recent form
Cavalry FC
2W 2D 2L
Vancouver FC
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cavalry FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-0
- Win rate
- 77%
- Goals for / match
- 2.62
- Goals against / match
- 0.69
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 17 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Vancouver FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-7
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.23
- Goals against / match
- 1.54
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cavalry FC at home only, Vancouver FC away only.
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cavalry FC 3 · draws 6 · Vancouver FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Cavalry FC | 1-0 | Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-07-25 | Vancouver FC | 1-0 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-05-18 | Vancouver FC | 0-2 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-10-18 | Vancouver FC | 2-2 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-08-17 | Cavalry FC | 5-4 | Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-07-14 | Vancouver FC | 0-0 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-07-09 | Cavalry FC | 1-1 | Vancouver FC | Canadian Championship |
| 2025-05-22 | Vancouver FC | 1-1 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Championship |
| 2025-04-18 | Cavalry FC | 1-1 | Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-09-28 | Cavalry FC | 0-0 | Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC — team news & stats 2026-10-12
- Supra du Quebec vs York United 2026-10-16
- Vancouver FC v HFX Wanderers FC — match page 2026-10-17
- Atlético Ottawa vs Forge — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC 2026-10-17
- HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Pacific FC vs Forge 2026-10-25
- York United v Atlético Ottawa — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Cavalry FC, previous: Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC prediction
- Vancouver FC, previous: Vancouver FC v HFX Wanderers FC analysis