Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC preview
In the match between Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC, both teams have a 39% probability to win according to our model, with a likely scoreline of 1-2. The expected goals for both teams are equal at 1.95, indicating a balanced contest.
The high probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 74% suggest an exciting match. However, the recent form shows Supra du Quebec has 4 wins in their last 5 matches, while Cavalry FC has only 3 wins in their last 5. This difference in form could influence the outcome, making the predicted scoreline less certain.
Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC: model vs market
| Source | Supra du Quebec | Draw | Cavalry FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 23% | 39% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 23% | 39% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.89
- Attack rating (Supra du Quebec / Cavalry FC)
- 1.31 / 1.36
- Defence rating (Supra du Quebec / Cavalry FC)
- 1.08 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Supra du Quebec goals. Columns: Cavalry FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Supra du Quebec | 39% | 2.58 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Cavalry FC | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Supra du Quebec or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Cavalry FC) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cavalry FC win by 2+ | 21% | 4.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC recent form
Supra du Quebec
4W 1D 1L
Cavalry FC
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Supra du Quebec at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-6
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cavalry FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.64
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 17 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Supra du Quebec at home only, Cavalry FC away only.
Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Supra du Quebec 0 · draws 1 · Cavalry FC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Cavalry FC | 6-0 | Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-08-09 | Supra du Quebec | 1-1 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-07-29 | Cavalry FC | 2-1 | Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-05-03 | Supra du Quebec | 0-1 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |
Other Semi-finals fixtures
- Atlético Ottawa v Forge — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Supra du Quebec, previous: HFX Wanderers FC v Supra du Quebec analysis
- Cavalry FC, previous: Cavalry FC – Vancouver FC, 2026-10-25