Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec preview
Cavalry FC faces Supra du Quebec with a 52% chance of winning compared to 25% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with an expected goals total of 2.35 for Cavalry FC and 1.55 for Supra du Quebec.
There is a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 72%. However, Cavalry FC's recent form shows 2 losses in their last 5 matches, which could affect their performance. In contrast, Supra du Quebec is on a strong run with 5 wins in their last 6 games, making this matchup unpredictable.
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec: model vs market
| Source | Cavalry FC | Draw | Supra du Quebec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 21% | 24% |
| Market | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Published | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 1.55.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cavalry FC, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cavalry FC | 1.80 | 1.80 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.80 | +0.02 |
| Supra du Quebec | 3.60 | 3.68 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.90
- Attack rating (Cavalry FC / Supra du Quebec)
- 1.29 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Cavalry FC / Supra du Quebec)
- 0.89 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cavalry FC goals. Columns: Supra du Quebec goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cavalry FC | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Supra du Quebec | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cavalry FC or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Supra du Quebec) | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cavalry FC win by 2+ | 35% | 2.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec recent form
Cavalry FC
2W 1D 3L
Supra du Quebec
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cavalry FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-3-0
- Win rate
- 79%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.64
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 14
- They have won 18 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
Supra du Quebec away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-6
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 2.21
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cavalry FC at home only, Supra du Quebec away only.
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Cavalry FC 3 · draws 1 · Supra du Quebec 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | Supra du Quebec | 2-1 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-09-26 | Cavalry FC | 6-0 | Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-08-09 | Supra du Quebec | 1-1 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-07-29 | Cavalry FC | 2-1 | Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-05-03 | Supra du Quebec | 0-1 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |
Other Semi-finals fixtures
- Atlético Ottawa v Forge — match page 2026-11-01
- Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Forge vs Atlético Ottawa 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Cavalry FC, previous: Supra du Quebec – Cavalry FC, 2026-11-01
- Supra du Quebec, previous: Supra du Quebec – Cavalry FC, 2026-11-01