Atlético Ottawa vs Forge preview
In the match between Atlético Ottawa and Forge, the 1X2 probabilities show Forge at 46% to win, compared to 27% for Atlético Ottawa. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% chance. Forge's recent form includes 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Atlético Ottawa has 2 wins in the same span.
The model predicts a 50% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance for both teams to score. However, if Atlético Ottawa can improve their attacking output, which currently sits at an expected goals of 1.14, they could challenge Forge's defense more effectively. Forge's expected goals are 1.55, indicating they have a stronger attacking threat.
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge: model vs market
| Source | Atlético Ottawa | Draw | Forge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 28% | 46% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 27% | 28% | 46% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.14.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Atlético Ottawa and Forge expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Atlético Ottawa / Forge)
- 0.93 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Atlético Ottawa / Forge)
- 0.95 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atlético Ottawa goals. Columns: Forge goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atlético Ottawa vs Forge
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlético Ottawa | 27% | 3.74 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Forge | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atlético Ottawa or draw) | 54% | 1.84 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Forge) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Forge win by 2+ | 24% | 4.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atlético Ottawa and Forge recent form
Atlético Ottawa
3W 0D 3L
Forge
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atlético Ottawa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-3
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.79
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Forge away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 17 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atlético Ottawa at home only, Forge away only.
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Atlético Ottawa 2 · draws 3 · Forge 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Atlético Ottawa | 1-2 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-09-12 | Forge | 3-0 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-05-24 | Atlético Ottawa | 2-1 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-04-04 | Forge | 2-0 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-10-26 | Forge | 1-2 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-09-21 | Atlético Ottawa | 1-1 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-08-17 | Forge | 2-0 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-07-12 | Atlético Ottawa | 1-1 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-05-13 | Forge | 2-2 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-11-02 | Forge | 1-0 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
- Atlético Ottawa, previous: York United vs Atlético Ottawa prediction
- Forge, previous: Pacific FC vs Forge: odds and pick