Forge vs Atlético Ottawa preview
In the Canadian Premier League match between Forge and Atlético Ottawa, the 1X2 probabilities show Forge at 61% to win, compared to Atlético Ottawa's 17%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Forge's expected goals of 2.15 against Atlético Ottawa's 0.97.
However, Forge's recent form includes two draws, which could impact their performance. Atlético Ottawa has a mixed recent record, with three wins in their last six matches. The Over 2.5 goals probability is at 60%, while both teams to score stands at 56%. These figures suggest potential for goals but also highlight the unpredictability of the match.
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa: model vs market
| Source | Forge | Draw | Atlético Ottawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 18% |
| Published | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 0.97.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Forge, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forge | 1.50 | 1.51 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.00 |
| Atlético Ottawa | 5.20 | 5.20 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Forge and Atlético Ottawa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.12
- Attack rating (Forge / Atlético Ottawa)
- 1.25 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Forge / Atlético Ottawa)
- 0.77 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Forge goals. Columns: Atlético Ottawa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Forge vs Atlético Ottawa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Forge | 61% | 1.63 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.60 | |
| Atlético Ottawa | 17% | 5.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Forge or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Atlético Ottawa) | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Forge win by 2+ | 41% | 2.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Forge and Atlético Ottawa recent form
Forge
3W 3D 0L
Atlético Ottawa
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Forge at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-1
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.64
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 14
- They have won 17 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlético Ottawa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-8
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Forge at home only, Atlético Ottawa away only.
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Forge 4 · draws 4 · Atlético Ottawa 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | Atlético Ottawa | 2-2 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-10-17 | Atlético Ottawa | 1-2 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-09-12 | Forge | 3-0 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-05-24 | Atlético Ottawa | 2-1 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-04-04 | Forge | 2-0 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-10-26 | Forge | 1-2 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-09-21 | Atlético Ottawa | 1-1 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-08-17 | Forge | 2-0 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-07-12 | Atlético Ottawa | 1-1 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-05-13 | Forge | 2-2 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
Other Semi-finals fixtures
- Atlético Ottawa v Forge — match page 2026-11-01
- Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Cavalry FC v Supra du Quebec — match page 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Forge, previous: Atlético Ottawa vs Forge prediction
- Atlético Ottawa, previous: Atlético Ottawa vs Forge prediction