York United vs Atlético Ottawa preview
In the matchup between York United and Atlético Ottawa, the 1X2 probabilities show Atlético Ottawa at 46%, while York United sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams have been inconsistent recently, with York United recording three losses in their last five matches, while Atlético Ottawa has two wins in their last five.
The model indicates a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score also at 70%. However, the recent form of both teams could affect the outcome. York United's struggle to find form might lead to a different result than expected, despite the statistical forecasts favoring Atlético Ottawa.
York United vs Atlético Ottawa: model vs market
| Source | York United | Draw | Atlético Ottawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 23% | 46% |
| Market | 31% | 22% | 47% |
| Published | 31% | 23% | 47% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.61.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.04, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
York United vs Atlético Ottawa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atlético Ottawa, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| York United | 2.91 | 2.91 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.05 | +0.05 |
| Atlético Ottawa | 1.95 | 1.93 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
York United and Atlético Ottawa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.62
- Attack rating (York United / Atlético Ottawa)
- 1.01 / 0.95
- Defence rating (York United / Atlético Ottawa)
- 1.59 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
York United vs Atlético Ottawa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: York United goals. Columns: Atlético Ottawa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
York United vs Atlético Ottawa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for York United vs Atlético Ottawa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | York United | 31% | 3.24 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Atlético Ottawa | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (York United or draw) | 53% | 1.87 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Atlético Ottawa) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlético Ottawa win by 2+ | 27% | 3.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
York United and Atlético Ottawa recent form
York United
1W 1D 4L
Atlético Ottawa
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
York United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 2.15
- Goals against / match
- 2.31
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
Atlético Ottawa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-7
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.23
- Goals against / match
- 1.85
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: York United at home only, Atlético Ottawa away only.
York United vs Atlético Ottawa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: York United 1 · draws 5 · Atlético Ottawa 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Atlético Ottawa | 2-1 | York United | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-07-17 | Atlético Ottawa | 1-1 | York United | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-05-01 | York United | 4-1 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-09-14 | York United | 2-2 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-08-03 | Atlético Ottawa | 0-0 | York United | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-07-08 | York United | 3-4 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Championship |
| 2025-06-22 | York United | 0-0 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-06-11 | Atlético Ottawa | 2-1 | York United | Canadian Championship |
| 2025-04-19 | Atlético Ottawa | 3-2 | York United | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-10-27 | Atlético Ottawa | 2-2 | York United | Canadian Premier League |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC — team news & stats 2026-10-12
- Supra du Quebec vs York United 2026-10-16
- Vancouver FC v HFX Wanderers FC — match page 2026-10-17
- Atlético Ottawa vs Forge — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC 2026-10-17
- Cavalry FC v Vancouver FC — match page 2026-10-25
- HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Pacific FC vs Forge 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- York United, previous: Supra du Quebec – York United, 2026-10-16
- Atlético Ottawa, previous: Atlético Ottawa vs Forge: odds and pick