U. Catolica vs A. Italiano: model vs market
| Source | U. Catolica | Draw | A. Italiano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 24% | 17% |
| Market | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Published | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
U. Catolica vs A. Italiano odds movement
Median bookmaker price on U. Catolica, 22 snapshots since 2026-09-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| U. Catolica | 1.52 | 1.52 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 4.03 | 4.00 | -0.03 |
| A. Italiano | 5.56 | 5.58 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
U. Catolica and A. Italiano expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (U. Catolica / A. Italiano)
- 1.27 / 0.79
- Defence rating (U. Catolica / A. Italiano)
- 1.03 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
U. Catolica vs A. Italiano score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: U. Catolica goals. Columns: A. Italiano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
U. Catolica vs A. Italiano goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for U. Catolica vs A. Italiano
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | U. Catolica | 60% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.29 | |
| A. Italiano | 17% | 5.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (U. Catolica or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or A. Italiano) | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | U. Catolica win by 2+ | 35% | 2.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
U. Catolica and A. Italiano recent form
U. Catolica
4W 0D 2L
A. Italiano
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
U. Catolica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-3
- Win rate
- 55%
- Goals for / match
- 2.64
- Goals against / match
- 1.45
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 12 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
A. Italiano away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-6
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.64
- Goals against / match
- 1.64
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 11
- They have won 6 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: U. Catolica at home only, A. Italiano away only.
U. Catolica vs A. Italiano head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: U. Catolica 2 · draws 1 · A. Italiano 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | A. Italiano | 3-4 | U. Catolica | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-07-20 | A. Italiano | 1-1 | U. Catolica | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-02-17 | U. Catolica | 3-1 | A. Italiano | Chile Primera División |
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