U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile preview
U. Catolica faces Universidad de Chile with 36% chances of winning for U. Catolica and 38% for Universidad de Chile. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at 9%. Both teams have shown attacking potential, with U. Catolica expected to score 1.44 goals and Universidad de Chile 2.19.
The model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 69%. However, U. Catolica's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while Universidad de Chile has 4 wins in the same period. This recent performance could influence the outcome, making it a competitive match.
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile: model vs market
| Source | U. Catolica | Draw | Universidad de Chile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 22% | 54% |
| Market | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Published | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Edge | -4% | -1% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.44.
- The market prices Universidad de Chile below our published probability: +5.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.92, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +10.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Universidad de Chile, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| U. Catolica | 2.31 | 2.33 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.18 | 3.30 | +0.12 |
| Universidad de Chile | 2.96 | 2.81 | -0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.62
- Attack rating (U. Catolica / Universidad de Chile)
- 1.20 / 1.65
- Defence rating (U. Catolica / Universidad de Chile)
- 1.15 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: U. Catolica goals. Columns: Universidad de Chile goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | U. Catolica | 36% | 2.81 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Universidad de Chile | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (U. Catolica or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Universidad de Chile) | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Universidad de Chile win by 2+ | 33% | 3.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile recent form
U. Catolica
4W 0D 2L
Universidad de Chile
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
U. Catolica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-3
- Win rate
- 55%
- Goals for / match
- 2.64
- Goals against / match
- 1.45
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 13 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Universidad de Chile away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-4
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 12
- They have won 13 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: U. Catolica at home only, Universidad de Chile away only.
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: U. Catolica 1 · draws 0 · Universidad de Chile 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Universidad de Chile | 1-0 | U. Catolica | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-10-26 | U. Catolica | 1-0 | Universidad de Chile | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-05-03 | Universidad de Chile | 1-0 | U. Catolica | Chile Primera División |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
- Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- O'Higgins vs Nublense 2026-10-31
- Huachipato v D. La Serena — match page 2026-11-01
- Cobresal vs Everton de Vina 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- U. Catolica, previous: U. Catolica vs A. Italiano: odds and pick
- Universidad de Chile, previous: Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina prediction