Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera preview
Coquimbo Unido faces Union La Calera with a 55% chance of winning and a predicted scoreline of 2-1, which occurs 10% of the time according to our model. Coquimbo Unido has scored an expected 1.69 goals, while Union La Calera is at 1.10.
Both teams to score stands at 56%, indicating a decent likelihood for goals from both sides. However, Coquimbo Unido's recent form shows inconsistency with 3 losses in their last 6 matches. This could affect their performance despite their strong head-to-head record of 3 wins against Union La Calera. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera: model vs market
| Source | Coquimbo Unido | Draw | Union La Calera |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Published | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.10.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Coquimbo Unido, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coquimbo Unido | 1.67 | 1.62 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.75 | +0.13 |
| Union La Calera | 4.80 | 5.00 | +0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (Coquimbo Unido / Union La Calera)
- 1.08 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Coquimbo Unido / Union La Calera)
- 1.17 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Coquimbo Unido goals. Columns: Union La Calera goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coquimbo Unido | 55% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Union La Calera | 20% | 5.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.80 |
| No | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Coquimbo Unido or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Union La Calera) | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Coquimbo Unido win by 2+ | 28% | 3.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera recent form
Coquimbo Unido
2W 0D 4L
Union La Calera
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Coquimbo Unido at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-4
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
Union La Calera away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-8
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 4 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Coquimbo Unido at home only, Union La Calera away only.
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Coquimbo Unido 3 · draws 0 · Union La Calera 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Union La Calera | 1-2 | Coquimbo Unido | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-11-02 | Coquimbo Unido | 2-0 | Union La Calera | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-05-17 | Union La Calera | 0-1 | Coquimbo Unido | Chile Primera División |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
- Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- O'Higgins vs Nublense 2026-10-31
- Huachipato v D. La Serena — match page 2026-11-01
- Cobresal vs Everton de Vina 2026-11-01
- U. Catolica v Universidad de Chile — match page 2026-11-01
- Deportes Limache vs A. Italiano 2026-11-02
- Concepción vs Palestino — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Coquimbo Unido, previous: Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido prediction
- Union La Calera, previous: Union La Calera v U. Catolica analysis