Huachipato vs D. La Serena preview
In the fixture between Huachipato and D. La Serena, the 1X2 probabilities show Huachipato at 46%, while D. La Serena stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 2-1, which has a 9% chance of occurring. Huachipato's expected goals are 1.75, and D. La Serena's are 1.50, indicating a competitive match.
Both teams to score has a 65% probability, and Over 2.5 goals is at 63%. However, Huachipato’s recent form includes a mix of results, with a recent loss in their last five matches. D. La Serena has shown better form with three wins in their last five games, which could influence the outcome.
Huachipato vs D. La Serena: model vs market
| Source | Huachipato | Draw | D. La Serena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Published | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.28, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Huachipato vs D. La Serena odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Huachipato, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huachipato | 2.00 | 2.21 | +0.22 |
| Draw | 3.33 | 3.51 | +0.18 |
| D. La Serena | 3.94 | 2.94 | -1.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Huachipato and D. La Serena expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Huachipato / D. La Serena)
- 0.89 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Huachipato / D. La Serena)
- 1.06 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Huachipato vs D. La Serena score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Huachipato goals. Columns: D. La Serena goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Huachipato vs D. La Serena goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Huachipato vs D. La Serena
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Huachipato | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| D. La Serena | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Huachipato or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or D. La Serena) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Huachipato win by 2+ | 23% | 4.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Huachipato and D. La Serena recent form
Huachipato
3W 2D 1L
D. La Serena
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Huachipato at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
D. La Serena away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-4
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.42
- Goals against / match
- 1.92
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Huachipato at home only, D. La Serena away only.
Huachipato vs D. La Serena head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Huachipato 2 · draws 1 · D. La Serena 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | D. La Serena | 0-0 | Huachipato | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-08-24 | D. La Serena | 0-2 | Huachipato | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-03-30 | Huachipato | 3-1 | D. La Serena | Chile Primera División |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
- Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- O'Higgins vs Nublense 2026-10-31
- Cobresal vs Everton de Vina 2026-11-01
- U. Catolica v Universidad de Chile — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Huachipato, previous: A. Italiano vs Huachipato: odds and pick
- D. La Serena, previous: D. La Serena – Concepción, 2026-10-24