Concepción vs Palestino: model vs market
| Source | Concepción | Draw | Palestino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 28% | 23% |
| Market | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Published | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.97.
- The market prices Concepción below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Concepción vs Palestino odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Concepción, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concepción | 2.31 | 2.66 | +0.35 |
| Draw | 3.23 | 3.20 | -0.02 |
| Palestino | 3.21 | 2.53 | -0.68 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Concepción and Palestino expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.48
- Attack rating (Concepción / Palestino)
- 0.92 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Concepción / Palestino)
- 0.79 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Concepción vs Palestino score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Concepción goals. Columns: Palestino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Concepción vs Palestino goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Concepción vs Palestino
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Concepción | 38% | 2.62 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Palestino | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Concepción or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Palestino) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Concepción win by 2+ | 25% | 3.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Concepción and Palestino recent form
Concepción
1W 3D 2L
Palestino
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Concepción at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-4
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.08
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).
Palestino away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-7
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 11 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Concepción at home only, Palestino away only.
Concepción vs Palestino head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Concepción 1 · draws 0 · Palestino 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Palestino | 0-1 | Concepción | Chile Primera División |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
- Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- O'Higgins vs Nublense 2026-10-31
- Huachipato v D. La Serena — match page 2026-11-01
- Cobresal vs Everton de Vina 2026-11-01
- U. Catolica v Universidad de Chile — match page 2026-11-01
- Deportes Limache vs A. Italiano 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Concepción, previous: D. La Serena – Concepción, 2026-10-24
- Palestino, previous: Palestino v Colo Colo analysis