Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion preview
Colo Colo has an 80% chance to win against Universidad de Concepcion, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 10%. The model suggests a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 72%, while both teams to score sits at 53%. Colo Colo's expected goals are 2.94, compared to just 0.80 for Universidad de Concepcion.
Colo Colo's recent form shows L-D-D-W-W-D, while Universidad de Concepcion has D-L-L-L-W-L. This disparity in form could influence the outcome, but the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. If Universidad de Concepcion improves their scoring, it could challenge the expected result.
Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion: model vs market
| Source | Colo Colo | Draw | Universidad de Concepcion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77% | 16% | 7% |
| Market | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Published | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.33, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Colo Colo, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colo Colo | 1.35 | 1.27 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 4.80 | 5.47 | +0.67 |
| Universidad de Concepcion | 8.00 | 8.78 | +0.78 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Colo Colo and Universidad de Concepcion expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.35
- Attack rating (Colo Colo / Universidad de Concepcion)
- 1.49 / 0.58
- Defence rating (Colo Colo / Universidad de Concepcion)
- 1.10 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Colo Colo goals. Columns: Universidad de Concepcion goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colo Colo | 74% | 1.36 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.06 | |
| Universidad de Concepcion | 10% | 10.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| No | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Colo Colo or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Universidad de Concepcion) | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | Colo Colo win by 2+ | 56% | 1.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Colo Colo and Universidad de Concepcion recent form
Colo Colo
2W 3D 1L
Universidad de Concepcion
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Colo Colo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 17 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Universidad de Concepcion away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-8
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 0.77
- Goals against / match
- 2.15
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 24 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Colo Colo at home only, Universidad de Concepcion away only.
Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Colo Colo 1 · draws 0 · Universidad de Concepcion 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Universidad de Concepcion | 1-2 | Colo Colo | Chile Primera División |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
- Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- O'Higgins vs Nublense 2026-10-31
- Huachipato v D. La Serena — match page 2026-11-01
- Cobresal vs Everton de Vina 2026-11-01
- U. Catolica v Universidad de Chile — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Colo Colo, previous: Palestino v Colo Colo analysis
- Universidad de Concepcion, previous: Universidad de Concepcion – Deportes Limache, 2026-10-25