Nublense vs Colo Colo preview
In the match between Nublense and Colo Colo, the 1X2 probabilities show Colo Colo with a 54% chance to win, while Nublense sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, which aligns with Colo Colo's expected goals of 2.70 compared to Nublense's 1.42.
However, Nublense's recent form includes 5 losses in their last 6 matches, which could lead to an unexpected outcome. Additionally, both teams to score has a probability of 71%, indicating that Nublense could find the net despite their struggles. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the expected results.
Nublense vs Colo Colo: model vs market
| Source | Nublense | Draw | Colo Colo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 18% | 64% |
| Market | 21% | 26% | 52% |
| Published | 20% | 24% | 55% |
| Edge | -1% | -2% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Colo Colo below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Nublense vs Colo Colo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Colo Colo, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nublense | 3.42 | 4.30 | +0.88 |
| Draw | 3.33 | 3.50 | +0.17 |
| Colo Colo | 2.15 | 1.75 | -0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nublense and Colo Colo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.12
- Attack rating (Nublense / Colo Colo)
- 0.83 / 1.74
- Defence rating (Nublense / Colo Colo)
- 1.36 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nublense vs Colo Colo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nublense goals. Columns: Colo Colo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nublense vs Colo Colo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nublense vs Colo Colo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nublense | 20% | 4.89 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Colo Colo | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nublense or draw) | 45% | 2.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Colo Colo) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Colo Colo win by 2+ | 44% | 2.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nublense and Colo Colo recent form
Nublense
1W 0D 5L
Colo Colo
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nublense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-4
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colo Colo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-2
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 17 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nublense at home only, Colo Colo away only.
Nublense vs Colo Colo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Nublense 0 · draws 1 · Colo Colo 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Colo Colo | 6-2 | Nublense | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-11-01 | Nublense | 0-1 | Colo Colo | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-05-19 | Colo Colo | 2-2 | Nublense | Chile Primera División |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- D. La Serena v Palestino — match page 2026-11-07
- Everton de Vina vs Concepción 2026-11-07
- Universidad de Chile v Cobresal — match page 2026-11-08
- Union La Calera v Huachipato — match page 2026-11-08
- A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Nublense, previous: O'Higgins – Nublense, 2026-10-31
- Colo Colo, previous: Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion prediction