A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido preview
A. Italiano faces Coquimbo Unido with a 33% chance of winning compared to 37% for Coquimbo. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs at a rate of 9%. A. Italiano's expected goals are 1.23, while Coquimbo Unido's are slightly lower at 1.14.
Both teams to score stands at 49%, indicating a near-even chance for both sides to find the net. Recent form shows A. Italiano with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Coquimbo Unido has 3 wins in the same number of games. A. Italiano has not won against Coquimbo in their last 3 encounters, which could influence the match outcome.
A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido: model vs market
| Source | A. Italiano | Draw | Coquimbo Unido |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| Published | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Coquimbo Unido, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Italiano | 2.50 | 2.68 | +0.18 |
| Draw | 3.27 | 3.20 | -0.07 |
| Coquimbo Unido | 2.83 | 2.50 | -0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
A. Italiano and Coquimbo Unido expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.37
- Attack rating (A. Italiano / Coquimbo Unido)
- 0.72 / 1.07
- Defence rating (A. Italiano / Coquimbo Unido)
- 0.94 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: A. Italiano goals. Columns: Coquimbo Unido goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | A. Italiano | 35% | 2.86 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Coquimbo Unido | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (A. Italiano or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Coquimbo Unido) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Coquimbo Unido win by 2+ | 14% | 7.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
A. Italiano and Coquimbo Unido recent form
A. Italiano
2W 2D 2L
Coquimbo Unido
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
A. Italiano at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-3
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.54
- Goals against / match
- 1.08
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Coquimbo Unido away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-7
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.46
- Goals against / match
- 1.85
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 24 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: A. Italiano at home only, Coquimbo Unido away only.
A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: A. Italiano 0 · draws 0 · Coquimbo Unido 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Coquimbo Unido | 3-0 | A. Italiano | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-08-23 | A. Italiano | 0-1 | Coquimbo Unido | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-03-30 | Coquimbo Unido | 2-1 | A. Italiano | Chile Primera División |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- D. La Serena v Palestino — match page 2026-11-07
- Everton de Vina vs Concepción 2026-11-07
- Universidad de Chile v Cobresal — match page 2026-11-08
- Union La Calera v Huachipato — match page 2026-11-08
- Nublense vs Colo Colo 2026-11-08
- U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- A. Italiano, previous: Deportes Limache vs A. Italiano: odds and pick
- Coquimbo Unido, previous: Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera: odds and pick