Union La Calera vs Huachipato preview
Union La Calera has a 46% chance of winning against Huachipato, who has a 26% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% probability. Union La Calera's expected goals are 1.18 compared to Huachipato's 0.89, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
However, Huachipato's recent form shows they are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, which could challenge La Calera's chances. Both teams to score stands at 42%, suggesting there is potential for goals from both sides. With a confidence grade of C, the outcome remains uncertain, making it a match to watch closely.
Union La Calera vs Huachipato: model vs market
| Source | Union La Calera | Draw | Huachipato |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 32% | 26% |
| Market | 48% | 27% | 26% |
| Published | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Union La Calera vs Huachipato odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Union La Calera, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union La Calera | 2.24 | 1.95 | -0.29 |
| Draw | 3.23 | 3.45 | +0.23 |
| Huachipato | 3.33 | 3.62 | +0.29 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Union La Calera and Huachipato expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.08
- Attack rating (Union La Calera / Huachipato)
- 0.75 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Union La Calera / Huachipato)
- 0.95 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Union La Calera vs Huachipato score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Union La Calera goals. Columns: Huachipato goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Union La Calera vs Huachipato goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Union La Calera vs Huachipato
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union La Calera | 46% | 2.17 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Huachipato | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.37 |
| No | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Union La Calera or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Huachipato) | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | Union La Calera win by 2+ | 18% | 5.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Union La Calera and Huachipato recent form
Union La Calera
2W 1D 3L
Huachipato
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Union La Calera at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-6
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Huachipato away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-6
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Union La Calera at home only, Huachipato away only.
Union La Calera vs Huachipato head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Union La Calera 1 · draws 0 · Huachipato 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Huachipato | 3-1 | Union La Calera | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-08-09 | Huachipato | 1-0 | Union La Calera | Chile Primera División |
| 2025-03-07 | Union La Calera | 1-0 | Huachipato | Chile Primera División |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- D. La Serena v Palestino — match page 2026-11-07
- Everton de Vina vs Concepción 2026-11-07
- Universidad de Chile v Cobresal — match page 2026-11-08
- A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Nublense vs Colo Colo 2026-11-08
- U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Union La Calera, previous: Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera: odds and pick
- Huachipato, previous: Huachipato v D. La Serena analysis