Everton de Vina vs Concepción preview
In the fixture between Everton de Vina and Concepción, the 1X2 probabilities show Everton de Vina at 50%, while Concepción sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Everton de Vina has an expected goals figure of 1.64, compared to Concepción's 1.21, indicating a potential edge for the home side.
However, recent form could influence the outcome. Everton de Vina's last six matches include 3 wins and 3 draws, while Concepción has 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last six. The model suggests a 54% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score, which could affect the final result if either team underperforms.
Everton de Vina vs Concepción: model vs market
| Source | Everton de Vina | Draw | Concepción |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Published | 50% | 27% | 24% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Everton de Vina vs Concepción odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Everton de Vina, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton de Vina | 1.85 | 1.83 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.50 | -0.05 |
| Concepción | 4.24 | 4.06 | -0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Everton de Vina and Concepción expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (Everton de Vina / Concepción)
- 1.38 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Everton de Vina / Concepción)
- 1.17 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Everton de Vina vs Concepción score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Everton de Vina goals. Columns: Concepción goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Everton de Vina vs Concepción goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Everton de Vina vs Concepción
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Everton de Vina | 50% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Concepción | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Everton de Vina or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Concepción) | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Everton de Vina win by 2+ | 25% | 4.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Everton de Vina and Concepción recent form
Everton de Vina
3W 1D 2L
Concepción
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Everton de Vina at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-4
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.46
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
Concepción away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-7
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Everton de Vina at home only, Concepción away only.
Everton de Vina vs Concepción head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Everton de Vina 1 · draws 0 · Concepción 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | Concepción | 0-2 | Everton de Vina | Chile Primera División |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- D. La Serena v Palestino — match page 2026-11-07
- Universidad de Chile v Cobresal — match page 2026-11-08
- Union La Calera v Huachipato — match page 2026-11-08
- A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Nublense vs Colo Colo 2026-11-08
- U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Everton de Vina, previous: Cobresal vs Everton de Vina prediction
- Concepción, previous: Concepción v Palestino analysis