Updated

Chile Primera División · Matchday 27

D. La Serena vs Palestino

· La Portada, La Serena

Alin prediction D. La Serena to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
D. La SerenaDrawPalestino
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.28.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
D. La Serena2.50 Draw3.55 Palestino2.74

Price as of

Expected return at 2.50: +1.7% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

D. La Serena vs Palestino preview

In the fixture between D. La Serena and Palestino, the 1X2 probabilities show D. La Serena at 41%, Palestino at 33%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance according to our model. D. La Serena has an expected goals figure of 1.80, while Palestino sits at 1.28.

Both teams to score has a 61% probability, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 59%. However, D. La Serena's recent form includes 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Palestino has only 1 win in the same period. This inconsistency could impact the outcome, making the match less predictable.

D. La Serena vs Palestino: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceD. La SerenaDrawPalestino
Model49%25%26%
Market38%27%35%
Published41%26%33%
Edge+3%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.28.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices D. La Serena below our published probability: +2.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

D. La Serena vs Palestino odds movement

Median bookmaker price on D. La Serena, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-31.

Opened 2.32Now 2.40 +0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
D. La Serena2.322.40+0.08
Draw3.303.40+0.10
Palestino3.152.60-0.55

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

D. La Serena and Palestino expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.80D. La Serena
1.28Palestino
Total expected goals
3.08
Attack rating (D. La Serena / Palestino)
1.13 / 0.99
Defence rating (D. La Serena / Palestino)
1.14 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

D. La Serena vs Palestino score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.7% 4.8% 3.8% 1.6% 0.7% 1 7.2% 11.7% 6.8% 2.9% 1.2% 2 7.4% 9.5% 6.1% 2.6% 1.1% 3 4.5% 5.7% 3.7% 1.6% 0.7% 4+ 3.0% 3.9% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4%

Rows: D. La Serena goals. Columns: Palestino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

D. La Serena vs Palestino goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for D. La Serena vs Palestino

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2D. La Serena41%2.46
Draw26%3.78
Palestino33%3.04
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.68
Under 2.541%2.46
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.58
Double chance1X (D. La Serena or draw)67%1.49
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Palestino)59%1.69
Handicap -1D. La Serena win by 2+27%3.66
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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D. La Serena and Palestino recent form

D. La Serena 3W 1D 2L
Palestino 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

D. La Serena at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-4-4
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.69
Goals against / match
1.46
Clean sheets
3 of 13
  • They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Palestino away

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-8
Win rate
31%
Goals for / match
0.92
Goals against / match
1.77
Clean sheets
2 of 13
  • They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).

League matches this season before kick-off: D. La Serena at home only, Palestino away only.

D. La Serena vs Palestino head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: D. La Serena 0 · draws 0 · Palestino 3.

D. La SerenaDrawsPalestino
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-16Palestino5-1D. La SerenaChile Primera División
2025-11-29D. La Serena0-3PalestinoChile Primera División
2025-06-14Palestino2-1D. La SerenaChile Primera División

Other Matchday 27 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot D. La Serena to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on D. La Serena
Our pick: D. La Serena to win 18+ Bet Now