Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima preview
Atletico Nacional faces Deportes Tolima with a 59% probability of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.06 for Atletico Nacional and 0.78 for Deportes Tolima. The market suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 54%, while both teams to score is at 48%.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating that recent form could influence the outcome. Atletico Nacional has won four of their last six matches, while Deportes Tolima has only one win in their last six. If Deportes Tolima can improve their scoring, they might challenge Atletico Nacional more than expected.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Nacional | Draw | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 22% | 12% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Published | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Edge | +9% | -3% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Atletico Nacional below the model: +9.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Nacional, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | 1.62 | 1.64 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.87 | 3.81 | -0.06 |
| Deportes Tolima | 4.91 | 5.00 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Nacional and Deportes Tolima expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Atletico Nacional / Deportes Tolima)
- 1.55 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Atletico Nacional / Deportes Tolima)
- 0.92 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Nacional goals. Columns: Deportes Tolima goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Deportes Tolima | 17% | 5.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Nacional or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportes Tolima) | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win by 2+ | 43% | 2.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Nacional and Deportes Tolima recent form
Atletico Nacional
4W 1D 1L
Deportes Tolima
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Nacional at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 14-2-0
- Win rate
- 88%
- Goals for / match
- 2.56
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 25 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportes Tolima away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Nacional at home only, Deportes Tolima away only.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Atletico Nacional 5 · draws 2 · Deportes Tolima 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Atletico Nacional | 3-1 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| 2026-05-16 | Deportes Tolima | 0-1 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2026-03-02 | Deportes Tolima | 1-0 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-08-02 | Deportes Tolima | 0-0 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-03-20 | Atletico Nacional | 4-3 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| 2024-12-22 | Atletico Nacional | 2-0 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| 2024-12-19 | Deportes Tolima | 1-1 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2024-11-15 | Deportes Tolima | 1-0 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2024-04-28 | Atletico Nacional | 3-1 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| 2023-11-09 | Atletico Nacional | 2-3 | Deportes Tolima | Primera A |