Atletico Nacional vs Junior: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Nacional | Draw | Junior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Market | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Published | 65% | 21% | 15% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Atletico Nacional vs Junior odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Nacional, 11 snapshots since 2026-09-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | 1.44 | 1.43 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.50 | +0.20 |
| Junior | 6.34 | 6.65 | +0.31 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Nacional and Junior expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.50
- Attack rating (Atletico Nacional / Junior)
- 1.47 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Atletico Nacional / Junior)
- 0.92 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Nacional vs Junior score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Nacional goals. Columns: Junior goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Nacional vs Junior goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Nacional vs Junior
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 65% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.84 | |
| Junior | 15% | 6.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Nacional or draw) | 85% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Junior) | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win by 2+ | 42% | 2.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Atletico Nacional and Junior recent form
Atletico Nacional
4W 1D 1L
Junior
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Nacional at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 13-2-0
- Win rate
- 87%
- Goals for / match
- 2.53
- Goals against / match
- 0.47
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 15
- They have won 24 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Junior away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-7
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.44
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 11 penalties (91%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Nacional at home only, Junior away only.
Atletico Nacional vs Junior head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Atletico Nacional 3 · draws 3 · Junior 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | Atletico Nacional | 1-0 | Junior | Primera A |
| 2026-06-03 | Junior | 3-0 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2026-03-11 | Junior | 0-4 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-11-30 | Junior | 2-1 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-11-27 | Atletico Nacional | 1-1 | Junior | Primera A |
| 2025-11-14 | Junior | 2-1 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-05-25 | Atletico Nacional | 2-3 | Junior | Primera A |
| 2024-09-27 | Atletico Nacional | 2-0 | Junior | Primera A |
| 2024-03-03 | Junior | 0-0 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2023-09-17 | Junior | 1-1 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |