Deportivo Pereira vs Santa Fe: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Pereira | Draw | Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 34% | 40% |
| Market | 23% | 28% | 49% |
| Published | 24% | 30% | 46% |
| Edge | +3% | +6% | -9% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Deportivo Pereira vs Santa Fe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Santa Fe, 9 snapshots since 2026-09-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pereira | 3.60 | 4.03 | +0.43 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.25 | -0.05 |
| Santa Fe | 2.02 | 1.90 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Pereira and Santa Fe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.89
- Attack rating (Deportivo Pereira / Santa Fe)
- 0.67 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Deportivo Pereira / Santa Fe)
- 1.03 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Pereira vs Santa Fe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Pereira goals. Columns: Santa Fe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Pereira vs Santa Fe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Pereira vs Santa Fe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Pereira | 24% | 4.23 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Santa Fe | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.63 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Pereira or draw) | 54% | 1.87 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Santa Fe) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Santa Fe win by 2+ | 17% | 5.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Deportivo Pereira and Santa Fe recent form
Deportivo Pereira
1W 3D 2L
Santa Fe
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Pereira at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-6-6
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 0.85
- Goals against / match
- 1.54
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 2 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santa Fe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-8-3
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Pereira at home only, Santa Fe away only.
Deportivo Pereira vs Santa Fe head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Deportivo Pereira 3 · draws 5 · Santa Fe 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-28 | Santa Fe | 2-2 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| 2025-07-13 | Deportivo Pereira | 2-2 | Santa Fe | Primera A |
| 2025-01-26 | Santa Fe | 2-1 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| 2024-10-04 | Santa Fe | 1-1 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| 2024-02-18 | Deportivo Pereira | 1-0 | Santa Fe | Primera A |
| 2023-10-04 | Deportivo Pereira | 2-0 | Santa Fe | Copa Colombia |
| 2023-09-27 | Santa Fe | 0-0 | Deportivo Pereira | Copa Colombia |
| 2023-09-24 | Santa Fe | 1-0 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| 2023-04-16 | Deportivo Pereira | 2-2 | Santa Fe | Primera A |
| 2022-11-28 | Deportivo Pereira | 5-1 | Santa Fe | Primera A |