Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios: model vs market
| Source | Independiente Medellin | Draw | Millonarios |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 30% |
| Published | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Edge | -5% | 0% | +5% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Independiente Medellin, 9 snapshots since 2026-09-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin | 2.21 | 2.24 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.29 | 3.25 | -0.04 |
| Millonarios | 3.09 | 3.06 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Independiente Medellin and Millonarios expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Independiente Medellin / Millonarios)
- 1.18 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Independiente Medellin / Millonarios)
- 1.12 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Independiente Medellin goals. Columns: Millonarios goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente Medellin | 40% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.51 | |
| Millonarios | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Independiente Medellin or draw) | 69% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Millonarios) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente Medellin win by 2+ | 17% | 5.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Independiente Medellin and Millonarios recent form
Independiente Medellin
3W 1D 2L
Millonarios
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Independiente Medellin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-5
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Millonarios away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-7
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Independiente Medellin at home only, Millonarios away only.
Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Independiente Medellin 3 · draws 4 · Millonarios 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | Millonarios | 0-0 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| 2025-08-03 | Independiente Medellin | 1-0 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2025-02-16 | Millonarios | 0-1 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| 2024-07-19 | Independiente Medellin | 1-1 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2024-01-21 | Millonarios | 5-0 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| 2023-12-01 | Independiente Medellin | 2-1 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2023-11-26 | Millonarios | 1-0 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| 2023-09-19 | Independiente Medellin | 1-1 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2023-06-17 | Millonarios | 2-1 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| 2023-05-21 | Independiente Medellin | 2-2 | Millonarios | Primera A |