Internacional de Bogota vs Once Caldas Prediction & Betting Tips 04/10/2026

Internacional de Bogota vs Once Caldas: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Internacional de Bogota	Draw	Once Caldas
Model	42%	28%	30%
Market	33%	31%	37%
Published	35%	30%	35%
Edge	+10%	-3%	-7%

Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Internacional de Bogota vs Once Caldas odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Once Caldas, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 2.71Now 2.50 -0.21

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Internacional de Bogota	2.79	2.83	+0.04
Draw	2.79	3.00	+0.21
Once Caldas	2.71	2.50	-0.21

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Internacional de Bogota and Once Caldas expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.47Internacional de Bogota

1.20Once Caldas

Total expected goals: 2.67
Attack rating (Internacional de Bogota / Once Caldas): 0.92 / 0.93
Defence rating (Internacional de Bogota / Once Caldas): 1.31 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Internacional de Bogota vs Once Caldas score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.1% 7.1% 5.0% 2.0% 0.8% 1 8.9% 13.4% 7.3% 2.9% 1.2% 2 7.5% 9.0% 5.4% 2.2% 0.8% 3 3.7% 4.4% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 1.9% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Internacional de Bogota goals. Columns: Once Caldas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Internacional de Bogota vs Once Caldas goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 76%

Over 2.5 50%

Over 3.5 28%

Both teams to score: 55%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Internacional de Bogota vs Once Caldas

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Internacional de Bogota	35%	2.86
	Draw	30%	3.33
	Once Caldas	35%	2.85
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	50%	2.00
	Under 2.5	50%	2.00
Both teams to score	Yes	55%	1.82
	No	45%	2.23
Double chance	1X (Internacional de Bogota or draw)	65%	1.54
	12 (either side)	70%	1.43
	X2 (draw or Once Caldas)	65%	1.54
Handicap -1	Once Caldas win by 2+	13%	7.79
	Push (exactly one goal)	17%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Internacional de Bogota and Once Caldas recent form

Internacional de Bogota 1W 3D 2L

Once Caldas 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Internacional de Bogota at home

Record (W-D-L): 7-5-4
Win rate: 44%
Goals for / match: 1.62
Goals against / match: 1.31
Clean sheets: 4 of 16

They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Once Caldas away

Record (W-D-L): 3-10-3
Win rate: 19%
Goals for / match: 1.19
Goals against / match: 1.19
Clean sheets: 2 of 16

They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 32 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Internacional de Bogota at home only, Once Caldas away only.

Internacional de Bogota vs Once Caldas head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Internacional de Bogota 1 · draws 4 · Once Caldas 5.

10% 40% 50%

Internacional de BogotaDrawsOnce Caldas

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-04-20	Once Caldas	2-1	Internacional de Bogota	Primera A
2025-10-07	Internacional de Bogota	0-1	Once Caldas	Primera A
2025-04-16	Once Caldas	3-0	Internacional de Bogota	Primera A
2024-08-04	Internacional de Bogota	1-1	Once Caldas	Primera A
2024-05-31	Internacional de Bogota	1-2	Once Caldas	Primera A
2024-05-06	Once Caldas	2-0	Internacional de Bogota	Primera A
2024-02-06	Once Caldas	0-0	Internacional de Bogota	Primera A
2023-09-22	Once Caldas	1-1	Internacional de Bogota	Primera A
2023-04-11	Internacional de Bogota	4-1	Once Caldas	Primera A
2022-07-14	Once Caldas	1-1	Internacional de Bogota	Primera A