Next fixtures in Italy
1 fixture on 9 October 2026 — every row opens the full prediction
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Model | Market | Conf. | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avellino vs SampdoriaItaly Serie BC | Italy Serie B | AvellinoOur prob 38%Best odds 2.85 | +16% | 51% | 34% | C | 2.85 |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick — the model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; the Model and Market columns are the two inputs behind it. Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
Italy — country trends
How matches actually ended in the 2026/27 across Italy’s covered competitions: 128 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.
Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (815 played matches).
Competitions in Italy
3 competitions covered — squad size, matches played this season and fixtures inside our publication window, with how their matches ended.
-
Italy · cup- Teams
- 44
- Played
- 28 of 36
- Upcoming
- 28
- Home wins
- 68%
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- BTTS
- 50%
-
Italy · league- Teams
- 20
- Played
- 50 of 380
- Upcoming
- 28
- Home wins
- 42%
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- BTTS
- 64%
-
Italy · league- Teams
- 20
- Played
- 50 of 387
- Upcoming
- 32
- Home wins
- 44%
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- BTTS
- 58%
Played / scheduled count this season’s matches; Upcoming counts the fixtures currently inside our publication window. Home wins, Over 2.5 and BTTS are shares of each competition’s played matches in its latest season with results.
Top teams in Italy by model rating
The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.
- Net rating
- +1.26
- Attack
- 1.98
- Defence
- 0.72
- Net rating
- +1.10
- Attack
- 2.17
- Defence
- 1.07
- Net rating
- +1.08
- Attack
- 1.91
- Defence
- 0.83
- Net rating
- +0.76
- Attack
- 2.07
- Defence
- 1.31
- Net rating
- +0.75
- Attack
- 2.15
- Defence
- 1.40
- Net rating
- +0.70
- Attack
- 1.85
- Defence
- 1.15
Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.
Recent results in Italy
What happened next to what we predicted
- AC Milan vs Lecce3–0
- Juventus vs Atalanta2–0
- Frosinone vs Como2–0
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa2–1
- Modena vs Empoli2–1
- Mantova vs Pisa2–2