Today’s matches in Italy
10 fixtures today — every row opens the full prediction
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Ours | Market | Conf. | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo vs LazioSerie AA | Serie A | LazioOur prob 43%Best odds 2.24 | -2% | 43% | 45% | A | 2.24 |
| Benevento vs CatanzaroItaly Serie BC | Italy Serie B | BeneventoOur prob 61%Best odds 1.73 | +6% | 61% | 55% | C | 1.73 |
| Ascoli vs SampdoriaItaly Serie BC | Italy Serie B | AscoliOur prob 51%Best odds 2.25 | +8% | 51% | 43% | C | 2.25 |
| Cesena vs EmpoliItaly Serie BC | Italy Serie B | CesenaOur prob 45%Best odds 2.10 | -2% | 45% | 46% | C | 2.10 |
| Virtus Entella vs AvellinoItaly Serie BC | Italy Serie B | Virtus EntellaOur prob 45%Best odds 2.12 | -1% | 45% | 45% | C | 2.12 |
| Padova vs SudtirolItaly Serie BC | Italy Serie B | PadovaOur prob 39%Best odds 2.49 | -1% | 39% | 39% | C | 2.49 |
| Vicenza Virtus vs ModenaItaly Serie BC | Italy Serie B | ModenaOur prob 45%Best odds 2.10 | -1% | 45% | 46% | C | 2.10 |
| Mantova vs CremoneseItaly Serie BC | Italy Serie B | MantovaOur prob 46%Best odds 2.28 | +3% | 46% | 42% | C | 2.28 |
| Roma vs CagliariSerie AA | Serie A | RomaOur prob 70%Best odds 1.38 | 0% | 70% | 71% | A | 1.38 |
| Torino vs ComoSerie AA | Serie A | ComoOur prob 53%Best odds 1.82 | -1% | 53% | 54% | A | 1.82 |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick (the Ours column) — our model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; Market = that de-vigged market probability. Edge = Ours minus Market; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
Italy — country trends
How matches actually ended in the 2026/27 across Italy’s covered competitions: 188 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.
Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (815 played matches).
Competitions in Italy
3 competitions covered — squad size, matches played this season and fixtures inside our publication window, with how their matches ended.
-
Italy · cup- Teams
- 44
- Played
- 28 of 36
- Upcoming
- 30
- Home wins
- 68%
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- BTTS
- 50%
-
Italy · league- Teams
- 20
- Played
- 80 of 380
- Upcoming
- 30
- Home wins
- 36%
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- BTTS
- 61%
-
Italy · league- Teams
- 20
- Played
- 80 of 380
- Upcoming
- 30
- Home wins
- 48%
- Over 2.5
- 59%
- BTTS
- 56%
Played / scheduled count this season’s matches; Upcoming counts the fixtures currently inside our publication window. Home wins, Over 2.5 and BTTS are shares of each competition’s played matches in its latest season with results.
Top teams in Italy by model rating
The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.
- Net rating
- +0.96
- Attack
- 2.25
- Defence
- 1.29
- Net rating
- +0.86
- Attack
- 1.76
- Defence
- 0.89
- Net rating
- +0.86
- Attack
- 2.01
- Defence
- 1.16
- Net rating
- +0.82
- Attack
- 2.21
- Defence
- 1.39
- Net rating
- +0.80
- Attack
- 2.20
- Defence
- 1.40
- Net rating
- +0.65
- Attack
- 1.73
- Defence
- 1.08
Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.
Recent results in Italy
What happened next to what we predicted