Drogheda United vs UCD preview
Drogheda United has a 51% chance to win against UCD, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 9%. The expected goals for Drogheda United is 1.45, while UCD's is 1.20. This indicates a narrow contest, but the recent form shows Drogheda United has won 3 of their last 6 matches.
Both teams to score stands at 55%, suggesting a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, UCD's recent form is not available, which could impact their performance. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome. If UCD performs better than expected, it could challenge Drogheda United's chances.
Drogheda United vs UCD: model vs market
| Source | Drogheda United | Draw | UCD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Published | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.81, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Drogheda United vs UCD odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Drogheda United, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drogheda United | 1.64 | 1.71 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.84 | -0.06 |
| UCD | 4.33 | 4.10 | -0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Drogheda United and UCD expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Drogheda United / UCD)
- 0.99 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Drogheda United / UCD)
- 1.04 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Drogheda United vs UCD score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Drogheda United goals. Columns: UCD goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Drogheda United vs UCD goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Drogheda United vs UCD
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Drogheda United | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| UCD | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Drogheda United or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or UCD) | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Drogheda United win by 2+ | 21% | 4.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Drogheda United and UCD recent form
Drogheda United
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Drogheda United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-6-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.22
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 18
- They have won 10 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Drogheda United at home only, UCD away only.
Drogheda United vs UCD head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Drogheda United 7 · draws 2 · UCD 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | Drogheda United | 1-1 | UCD | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-09-01 | Drogheda United | 3-0 | UCD | Premier Division |
| 2023-07-14 | UCD | 1-3 | Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| 2023-05-26 | Drogheda United | 3-1 | UCD | Premier Division |
| 2023-03-10 | UCD | 0-1 | Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| 2022-10-21 | UCD | 2-1 | Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| 2022-08-01 | Drogheda United | 1-1 | UCD | Premier Division |
| 2022-04-15 | UCD | 0-2 | Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| 2022-03-04 | Drogheda United | 4-2 | UCD | Premier Division |
| 2020-09-18 | UCD | 1-3 | Drogheda United | First Division |
Before and after this match
- Drogheda United, previous: Drogheda United – Galway United, 2026-10-30