Nairobi United vs Tusker Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Nairobi United vs Tusker preview

In the match between Nairobi United and Tusker, the 1X2 probabilities show Nairobi United at 35%, a draw at 33%, and Tusker at 32%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, with a 12% chance. Nairobi United's expected goals are 1.05, while Tusker's are slightly lower at 0.98.

Nairobi United's recent form includes 2 wins and 3 draws, while Tusker has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 6 matches. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is 33%, and both teams to score stands at 42%. These figures could change if either team improves their attacking efficiency or if defensive mistakes occur during the match.

Nairobi United vs Tusker: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Nairobi United	Draw	Tusker
Model	35%	33%	32%
Market	—	—	—
Published	35%	33%	32%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Nairobi United and Tusker expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.05Nairobi United

0.98Tusker

Total expected goals: 2.04
Attack rating (Nairobi United / Tusker): 1.27 / 0.97
Defence rating (Nairobi United / Tusker): 1.03 / 0.81

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nairobi United vs Tusker score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.4% 11.5% 6.3% 2.1% 0.6% 1 12.4% 14.9% 6.7% 2.2% 0.7% 2 7.2% 7.1% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 3 2.5% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Nairobi United goals. Columns: Tusker goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nairobi United vs Tusker goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%

Over 1.5 62%

Over 2.5 33%

Over 3.5 15%

Both teams to score: 42%
No goals (0–0): 14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nairobi United vs Tusker

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Nairobi United	35%	2.85
	Draw	33%	3.01
	Tusker	32%	3.16
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	33%	3.00
	Under 2.5	67%	1.50
Both teams to score	Yes	42%	2.38
	No	58%	1.73
Double chance	1X (Nairobi United or draw)	68%	1.46
	12 (either side)	67%	1.50
	X2 (draw or Tusker)	65%	1.54
Handicap -1	Nairobi United win by 2+	14%	6.99
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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