Updated

La Liga · Matchday 12

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano

· Anoeta, San Sebastian

Alin prediction Real Sociedad to win

Ablended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Real SociedadDrawRayo Vallecano
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 1.39.
  • RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 44%.
Best market odds
Real Sociedad1.76 Draw4.23 Rayo Vallecano4.88

Price as of

Expected return at 1.76: -0.6% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano preview

In the match between Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano, the 1X2 probabilities favor Real Sociedad at 56%, with a likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. The model indicates a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams to score at 70%. Real Sociedad's expected goals are 2.56, while Rayo Vallecano's are 1.35.

However, Rayo Vallecano has shown resilience, winning 3 of their last 6 matches. Their recent form includes 4 wins and 2 draws in the last 6 games. Additionally, the head-to-head record shows 4 draws in the last 7 encounters, indicating that an unexpected result is possible.

Why this pick: Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Sociedad 10, Rayo Vallecano 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Real SociedadRayo Vallecano
1.77 xG per 90 1.35
1.65 npxG per 90 1.27
10.4 PPDA 9.6
8.0 Deep completions per 90 5.4
1.29 xPTS per 90 1.21

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceReal SociedadDrawRayo Vallecano
Model65%19%16%
Market54%24%22%
Published56%23%21%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 1.39.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Real Sociedad below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Sociedad, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 1.84Now 1.69 -0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Real Sociedad1.841.69-0.15
Draw3.804.03+0.23
Rayo Vallecano3.924.55+0.63

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.44Real Sociedad
1.39Rayo Vallecano
Total expected goals
3.83
Attack rating (Real Sociedad / Rayo Vallecano)
1.35 / 1.11
Defence rating (Real Sociedad / Rayo Vallecano)
1.08 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 1.3% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 1 3.5% 8.2% 4.8% 2.2% 1.0% 2 6.3% 8.8% 6.1% 2.8% 1.3% 3 5.4% 7.5% 5.2% 2.4% 1.1% 4+ 6.3% 8.8% 6.2% 2.9% 1.4%

Rows: Real Sociedad goals. Columns: Rayo Vallecano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
70%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Real Sociedad56%1.77
Draw23%4.36
Rayo Vallecano21%4.86
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.577%1.30
Under 2.523%4.31
Both teams to scoreYes70%1.42
No30%3.38
Double chance1X (Real Sociedad or draw)79%1.26
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Rayo Vallecano)44%2.30
Handicap -1Real Sociedad win by 2+42%2.38
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano recent form

Real Sociedad 4W 1D 1L
Rayo Vallecano 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Real Sociedad at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Rayo Vallecano away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
2.60
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Real Sociedad at home only, Rayo Vallecano away only.

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Real Sociedad 1 · draws 4 · Rayo Vallecano 2.

Real SociedadDrawsRayo Vallecano
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-26Rayo Vallecano3-3Real SociedadLa Liga
2025-10-05Real Sociedad0-1Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
2025-03-16Rayo Vallecano2-2Real SociedadLa Liga
2025-01-16Real Sociedad3-1Rayo VallecanoCopa del Rey
2024-08-18Real Sociedad1-2Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
2024-01-27Real Sociedad0-0Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
2023-10-29Rayo Vallecano2-2Real SociedadLa Liga

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Real Sociedad to win Predicted score 2 – 1 A Bet on Real Sociedad
Our pick: Real Sociedad to win 18+ Bet Now