Celta Vigo vs Levante preview
Celta Vigo faces Levante with a 52% chance of winning compared to Levante's 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Celta Vigo's expected goals of 1.79 against Levante's 1.15. With a confidence grade of A, the match suggests a strong performance from Celta Vigo.
However, Celta Vigo's recent form shows inconsistency with L-D-W-W-L-D, while Levante has struggled, recording L-L-W-D-D-L. This could impact the outcome, as both teams to score has a 60% probability, indicating that Levante may find the net despite their lower expected goals. Additionally, the Over 2.5 goals probability stands at 58%, which could also influence the match dynamics.
Why this pick: Celta Vigo vs Levante
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Celta Vigo 10, Levante 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Celta Vigo vs Levante: model vs market
| Source | Celta Vigo | Draw | Levante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Market | 52% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.86, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Celta Vigo vs Levante odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Celta Vigo, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 1.83 | 1.82 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.58 | 3.67 | +0.10 |
| Levante | 4.12 | 4.20 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Celta Vigo and Levante expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.94
- Attack rating (Celta Vigo / Levante)
- 0.83 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Celta Vigo / Levante)
- 0.91 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Celta Vigo vs Levante score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Celta Vigo goals. Columns: Levante goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Celta Vigo vs Levante goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Celta Vigo vs Levante
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celta Vigo | 52% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Levante | 22% | 4.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Celta Vigo or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Levante) | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Celta Vigo win by 2+ | 31% | 3.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Celta Vigo and Levante recent form
Celta Vigo
2W 2D 2L
Levante
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Celta Vigo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Levante away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Celta Vigo at home only, Levante away only.
Celta Vigo vs Levante head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Celta Vigo 1 · draws 0 · Levante 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Celta Vigo | 2-3 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2025-11-02 | Levante | 1-2 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Valencia vs Real Madrid 2026-11-07
- Elche vs Real Betis 2026-11-08
- Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano — match page 2026-11-08
- Villarreal v Getafe — match page 2026-11-08
- Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Celta Vigo, previous: Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise prediction
- Celta Vigo, next: Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo prediction
- Levante, previous: Tarancón – Levante, 2026-11-05