Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo Prediction & Betting Tips 13/11/2026

Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo preview

In the Copa del Rey fixture between Salamanca UDS and Celta Vigo, the 1X2 probabilities show Celta Vigo at 71% to win, while Salamanca UDS sits at 11%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, with an expected goals tally of 0.83 for Salamanca UDS and 1.95 for Celta Vigo.

Celta Vigo's recent form includes 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, while Salamanca UDS has 1 win and 1 loss in their last 2 games. The model indicates a 53% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score. A surprising performance from Salamanca UDS or an off day for Celta Vigo could lead to an unexpected outcome.

Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Salamanca UDS	Draw	Celta Vigo
Model	12%	22%	66%
Market	13%	18%	69%
Published	13%	19%	68%
Edge	0%	+1%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 0.79.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded 2026-10-28 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Celta Vigo, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

Opened 1.25Now 1.35 +0.10

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Salamanca UDS	9.50	7.40	-2.10
Draw	5.80	5.05	-0.75
Celta Vigo	1.25	1.35	+0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Salamanca UDS and Celta Vigo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.79Salamanca UDS

2.05Celta Vigo

Total expected goals: 2.84
Attack rating (Salamanca UDS / Celta Vigo): 0.80 / 0.73
Defence rating (Salamanca UDS / Celta Vigo): 1.35 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.8% 11.1% 12.3% 8.4% 6.9% 1 3.7% 10.4% 9.7% 6.6% 5.4% 2 1.8% 3.7% 3.8% 2.6% 2.1% 3 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Salamanca UDS goals. Columns: Celta Vigo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 54%

Over 3.5 32%

Both teams to score: 48%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Salamanca UDS	13%	7.95
	Draw	19%	5.18
	Celta Vigo	68%	1.47
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54%	1.85
	Under 2.5	46%	2.17
Both teams to score	Yes	48%	2.06
	No	52%	1.94
Double chance	1X (Salamanca UDS or draw)	32%	3.14
	12 (either side)	81%	1.24
	X2 (draw or Celta Vigo)	87%	1.14
Handicap -1	Celta Vigo win by 2+	42%	2.38
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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