Updated

Virsliga · Final

Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums

· Janis Dalins stadium, Valmiera

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Tukums to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Valmiera / BSSDrawTukums

Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceValmiera / BSSDrawTukums
Model54%30%16%
Market28%25%46%
Published35%26%39%
Edge+6%+1%-7%
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Tukums, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-12.

Opened 1.95Now 1.95 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Valmiera / BSS3.103.18+0.08
Draw3.603.58-0.02
Tukums1.951.95+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Valmiera / BSS and Tukums expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39Valmiera / BSS
0.65Tukums
Total expected goals
2.04
Attack rating (Valmiera / BSS / Tukums)
0.83 / 0.54
Defence rating (Valmiera / BSS / Tukums)
0.95 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.2% 7.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 1 16.9% 12.9% 3.8% 0.8% 0.2% 2 12.5% 8.2% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 3 5.8% 3.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 2.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Valmiera / BSS goals. Columns: Tukums goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 62%
Over 2.5 33%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
37%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Valmiera / BSS35%2.88
Draw26%3.78
Tukums39%2.58
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533%2.99
Under 2.567%1.50
Both teams to scoreYes37%2.69
No63%1.59
Double chance1X (Valmiera / BSS or draw)61%1.63
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Tukums)65%1.53
Handicap -1Tukums win by 2+5%21.78
Push (exactly one goal)12%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Valmiera / BSS and Tukums recent form

Valmiera / BSS 0W 0D 1L
Tukums 1W 1D 4L

Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Tukums away

Record (W-D-L)
0-5-13
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.89
Goals against / match
2.28
Clean sheets
1 of 18
  • They have won 6 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 37 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 37 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Valmiera / BSS at home only, Tukums away only.

Expected lineups

Valmiera / BSS lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 H. Kalnins
  2. 17 Rinalds Freilihs
  3. 5 L. Manisa
  4. 3 E. Kalnins
  5. 15 R. Krasts
  6. 28 Artūrs Bērziņš
  7. 27 A. Bannikovs
  8. 8 V. Stepanovs
  9. 4 M. Erglis
  10. 7 P. Diouf Ndiaye Doudou
  11. 25 M. Dembele

Bench: J. Vagars, I. Kulitis, R. Steimaks, Alekss Tkacenko

Tukums lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 S. Vilkovs
  2. 16 Kristaps Klavins
  3. 8 R. Reingolcs
  4. 5 J. Toba
  5. 6 K. Volkovs
  6. 21 D. Valmiers
  7. 7 S. Shibata
  8. 4 K. Anmanis
  9. 10 B. Samoilovs
  10. 27 R. Deružinskis
  11. 17 M. Derkach

Bench: A. Kuprins, D. Calbergs, D. Radzenieks, H. Joksts, R. Meļķis, K. Shigema, M. Šusts, M. Štāls

Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Valmiera / BSS 4 · draws 1 · Tukums 5.

Valmiera / BSSDrawsTukums
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-11-11Tukums1-0Valmiera / BSSVirsliga
2024-11-09Valmiera / BSS2-3TukumsVirsliga
2024-08-24Tukums3-2Valmiera / BSSVirsliga
2024-07-14Tukums2-3Valmiera / BSSCup
2024-06-14Valmiera / BSS6-1TukumsVirsliga
2024-04-27Tukums1-2Valmiera / BSSVirsliga
2023-10-01Tukums3-2Valmiera / BSSVirsliga
2023-08-21Valmiera / BSS0-1TukumsCup
2023-07-07Valmiera / BSS6-0TukumsVirsliga
2023-05-17Tukums0-0Valmiera / BSSVirsliga

Other Final fixtures

Before and after this match