Lens vs Marseille preview
In the Ligue 1 fixture between Lens and Marseille, the 1X2 probabilities show Lens at 47%, Marseille at 29%, and a draw at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Lens has an expected goals figure of 1.97, while Marseille sits at 1.49.
Both teams to score has a probability of 68%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 69%. Recent form shows Lens with 3 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, while Marseille has 4 wins and 2 losses. The head-to-head record is evenly matched, with both teams winning 3 times in their last 6 encounters. These factors could influence the outcome, especially if either team improves their scoring efficiency.
Why this pick: Lens vs Marseille
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lens 10, Marseille 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lens vs Marseille: model vs market
| Source | Lens | Draw | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 22% | 27% |
| Market | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Published | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lens vs Marseille odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lens, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 2.10 | 2.25 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 3.88 | 3.90 | +0.02 |
| Marseille | 3.08 | 2.91 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lens and Marseille expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.79
- Attack rating (Lens / Marseille)
- 0.94 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Lens / Marseille)
- 1.62 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lens vs Marseille score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lens goals. Columns: Marseille goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lens vs Marseille goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lens vs Marseille
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lens | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Marseille | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lens or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Marseille) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lens win by 2+ | 8% | 12.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 12% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lens and Marseille recent form
Lens
2W 0D 4L
Marseille
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lens at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Marseille away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lens at home only, Marseille away only.
Lens vs Marseille head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Lens 3 · draws 0 · Marseille 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Marseille | 3-1 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Lens | 2-1 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Marseille | 0-1 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-11-23 | Lens | 1-3 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-28 | Marseille | 2-1 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-11-12 | Lens | 1-0 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Toulouse v Strasbourg — match page 2026-11-06
- Auxerre vs Paris FC 2026-11-07
- Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Rennes vs Lille 2026-11-08
- Angers v Nice — match page 2026-11-08
- Brest vs Lyon — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Le Havre v Lorient — match page 2026-11-08
- Le Mans vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Lens, previous: Lens v Como analysis
- Lens, next: RasenBallsport Leipzig – Lens, 2026-11-24
- Marseille, previous: Bayer Leverkusen – Marseille, 2026-11-05
- Marseille, next: Marseille vs Levski Sofia prediction