Marseille vs Le Havre preview
Marseille faces Le Havre with a 58% chance to win, while Le Havre and a draw both sit at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 8% of the time in our model. With Marseille's expected goals at 2.25 and Le Havre's at 1.66, there is a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals, predicted at 73%.
Marseille's recent form shows 2 wins and 4 losses, while Le Havre has 5 games without a win, including 4 losses. Both teams to score stands at 72%, indicating a good chance for goals from both sides. However, if Marseille's form continues to falter or Le Havre finds a way to improve, these predictions could change.
Why this pick: Marseille vs Le Havre
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Marseille 10, Le Havre 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Marseille vs Le Havre: model vs market
| Source | Marseille | Draw | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 21% | 30% |
| Market | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Published | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| Edge | -12% | 0% | +12% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.66.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Marseille vs Le Havre odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Marseille, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 1.55 | 1.56 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.44 | +0.24 |
| Le Havre | 5.78 | 5.38 | -0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Marseille and Le Havre expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.91
- Attack rating (Marseille / Le Havre)
- 1.17 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Marseille / Le Havre)
- 1.36 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Marseille vs Le Havre score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Marseille goals. Columns: Le Havre goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Marseille vs Le Havre goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Marseille vs Le Havre
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marseille | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.69 | |
| Le Havre | 21% | 4.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Marseille or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Le Havre) | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Marseille win by 2+ | 29% | 3.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Marseille and Le Havre recent form
Marseille
2W 0D 4L
Le Havre
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Marseille at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Le Havre away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Marseille at home only, Le Havre away only.
Marseille vs Le Havre head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Marseille 6 · draws 0 · Le Havre 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Le Havre | 0-1 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Marseille | 6-2 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-05-10 | Le Havre | 1-3 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-01-05 | Marseille | 5-1 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-05-19 | Le Havre | 1-2 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-10-08 | Marseille | 3-0 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Brest vs Nice 2026-10-23
- Toulouse vs Estac Troyes — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lens vs Paris FC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Monaco vs Lille 2026-10-25
- Angers v Lorient — match page 2026-10-25
- Rennes v Strasbourg — match page 2026-10-25
- Auxerre v Le Mans — match page 2026-10-25
- Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Marseille, previous: Sturm Graz – Marseille, 2026-10-22
- Marseille, next: Bayer Leverkusen – Marseille, 2026-11-05
- Le Havre, previous: Le Havre vs Auxerre: odds and pick